Fresh after Democrats picked up two new congressional seats in Arizona in 2006, they want more. Party leaders are focusing on two additional seats in the U.S. House, both of which represent parts of the East Valley.

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Currently, the eight congressional seats are split evenly — four held by Democrats, four by Republicans. If Democrats pick up even one of their targeted seats in the 2008 elections, the change would mark a seismic political shift for the state that produced Barry Goldwater, the father of the modern conservative GOP movement.

The last time Democrats held a majority of Arizona’s U.S. House seats was 1966, when the state only had three seats: Democrats Mo Udall and George Senner and Republican John Rhodes.

A Democratic majority appears due in 2008, said Arizona State University political analyst Bruce Merrill.

“There will be a continuation of the winds of change that we saw a year ago. I think people are going to be looking for new direction and that is going to tend to help the congressional people running under the Democratic ticket,” he said.

Democrats believe the political pendulum has swung and Arizona is re-emerging as a Democratic state — or at least as a toss-up state.

They attribute the change to an influx of Democratic-voting residents arriving daily from California and the Midwest, and to Arizona-raised Republicans abandoning the GOP because of President Bush’s war-scorched tenure.

The hard evidence is conflicting, though.

On the plus side for Democrats, new voters statewide are registering as Democrats at three times the rate of those registering as Republicans, according to the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office.

However, new voters are registering as independents at twice the rate of Democrats and Republicans combined.

On the negative side for Democrats, Republicans still outnumber them among the state’s more than 2.6 million registered voters. The breakdown: 39 percent Republican, 33 percent Democrat, and 28 percent independent. Less than 1 percent are Libertarians.

Democrats clearly have momentum, though.

Consider last year’s Democratic gains:

• Former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell bounced Republican six-term incumbent Rep. J.D. Hayworth in the 5th Congressional District.

• Former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords defeated Republican state Rep. Randy Graf after 11-term GOP incumbent Rep. Jim Kolbe retired in the 8th Congressional District.

Now, Democrats see these races as opportunities for next year:

• The 1st Congressional District, which includes eastern Pinal County and vast stretches of the northern, central and eastern regions of the state is being vacated by Republican three-term incumbent Rep. Rick Renzi, under federal investigation in connection with public corruption. Candidates from both parties have been coming forward to stake their claims.

• In the 3rd Congressional District, which takes in central and northern Phoenix, plus Paradise Valley, Cave Creek and Carefree, the seat is held by seven-term GOP incumbent Rep. John Shadegg.

The seat generally is regarded a noncompetitive Republican stronghold, but Democratic newcomer Bob Lord has been attracting enough money for a serious campaign.

The Democrats’ first order of business will be retaining the seats they captured last year, said Maria Weeg, executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party.

Those races already are shaping up to be spirited affairs.

In the 5th District, Republicans could line up six deep. Former state Rep. Laura Knaperek and lobbyist Jim Ogsbury have launched campaigns, while state Rep. Mark Anderson and Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert have formed exploratory committees.

Plus, former Scottsdale City Councilwoman Susan Bitter Smith and Arizona Corporation Commission member Jeff Hatch-Miller are thinking about entering.

“The fact that Republicans held the seat for so long is probably the primary energy why this seat is so critical,” Hatch-Miller said.

In the 8th District, Republican state Senate President Tim Bee has formed an exploratory committee as he weighs running against Giffords. That move appears to have cleared the Republican field.

Democrats and Republicans alike project both the Mitchell and Giffords races to emerge as key battlegrounds on a national basis. Both sides know that with rare exception, U.S. House members are never more vulnerable than after their first terms.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is targeting Mitchell’s seat as one of its top 10 priorities, while Giffords’ seat ranks as one of its top 20, said Arizona Republican Party spokesman Brett Mecum.

Democrats started lining up for the Renzi seat even before Renzi announced he wouldn’t seek re-election.

Former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, attorney Howard Shanker and former TV reporter Mary Kim Titla are in. In addition, former Casa Grande Mayor Bob Mitchell is considering a run, potentially putting both him and brother Harry Mitchell in Congress.

The district easily could tip Democratic, Weeg said.

Republican candidates include radio talk show host Sydney Hay, who ran against Renzi in the 2000 primary. State Rep. Bill Konopnicki, ACC member Kris Mayes, state Sen. Tom O’Halleran, and rancher and business owner Steve Pierce also are interested.

1st Congressional District

Republican: 34 percent

Democrat: 40 percent

Independent: 25 percent

Libertarian: Less than 1 percent

Democratic candidates: Ann Kirkpatrick, former state representative; Howard Shanker, attorney; and former TV reporter Mary Kim Titla

Other Democrats on the radar: Bob Mitchell, former Casa Grande mayor

Republican candidates: Sydney Hay, radio talk show host

Other Republicans on the radar: Rep. Bill Konopnicki, Kris Mayes, Arizona Corporation Commission member, Sen. Tom O’Halleran, Steve Pierce, rancher and business owner

2nd Congressional District

Republican: 44 percent

Democrat: 28 percent

Independent: 28 percent

Libertarian: Less than 1 percent

Democratic candidate: John Thrasher, retired college teacher

Republican candidate: Trent Franks, incumbent

3rd Congressional District

Republican: 45 percent

Democrat: 28 percent

Independent: 26 percent

Libertarian: Less than 1 percent

Democratic candidate: Bob Lord, attorney

Republican candidate: John Shadegg, incumbent

4th Congressional District

Republican: 22 percent

Democrat: 48 percent

Independent: 29 percent

Libertarian: Less than 1 percent

Democratic candidate: Ed Pastor, incumbent

Republican candidates: None announced

5th Congressional District

Republican: 43 percent

Democrat: 27 percent

Independent: 29 percent

Libertarian: Less than 1 percent

Democratic candidate: Harry Mitchell, incumbent

Republican candidates: Laura Knaperek, former state representative Jim Ogsbury, lobbyist

Other Republicans on the radar: Mark Anderson, state representative; Susan Bitter Smith, former Scottsdale councilwoman; Jeff Hatch-Miller, Arizona Corporation Commission member; Dave Schweikert, Maricopa County treasurer

6th Congressional District

Republican: 47 percent

Democrat: 24 percent

Independent: 28 percent

Libertarian: Less than 1 percent

Democratic candidates: None announced

Republican candidate: Jeff Flake, incumbent

Another Republican on the radar: Rep. Russell Pearce

7th Congressional District

Republican: 24 percent

Democrat: 45 percent

Independent: 30 percent

Libertarian: Less than 1 percent

Democratic candidate: Raul Grijalva, incumbent

Republican candidate: Gene Chewning, church pastor

8th Congressional District

Republican: 38 percent

Democrat: 33 percent

Independent: 28 percent

Libertarian: Less than 1 percent

Democratic candidate: Gabrielle Giffords, incumbent

Republican on the radar: Sen. Tim Bee