Story lines for NASCAR at PIR

The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup heads to Phoenix International Raceway this week, for Sunday’s Checker O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Presented By Pennzoil – the ninth event in the Chase. That will be the capper of a national series tripleheader weekend at the 1-mile track.

NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES

The Chase, Week 9

• Jimmie Johnson’s chances of a record fourth-straight championship absorbed a body blow at Texas – but by no means was it a knockout. An early-race crash led to a 38th-place finish for Johnson and a seemingly safe lead in the points is down to 73 over second-place Mark Martin, with two races remaining on the schedule. The largest deficit ever overcome with two races remaining is 85 points. In 1992, Alan Kulwicki leapfrogged two drivers – Bill Elliott and Davey Allison – with two races to go to win the championship.

• As the season comes to a close, the championship picture starts to come into focus. To clinch at Homestead, two races away, Johnson needs to average a fourth-place finish over the final two races, or fifth and a lap led in each of the final two races, or sixth and the most laps led in each of the final two races. If he does that, he'll clinch no matter what any other driver does. He can mathematically clinch at Phoenix, though the task is a tough one. To clinch Sunday, Johnson needs to leave Phoenix with a 195-point lead over second place. Currently up 73 points, he’ll need to gain 122 points in Sunday’s race.

• His suddenly precarious lead aside, Johnson has to like the fact that he’ll be in Phoenix this week. He has won three of the last four PIR races. Johnson won the fall race at Phoenix in 2007, then swept last year’s two races. Johnson also has the top pre-race Driver Rating at Phoenix – by a wide margin. His 120.0 rating is 17.6 points ahead of second-best Kurt Busch’s 102.4.

• Mark Martin, second in the points this week, could be headed toward his fifth series championship runner-up finish. If that happens, his consolation will be a simply outstanding season – his first for Hendrick Motorsports. Martin has five victories this season, second only to Johnson’s six. The first of Martin’s 2009 victories came at Phoenix, in April. So, given the points-tightening developments at Texas, Martin is looming ominously in Johnson’s rear-view mirror.

• Four-time champion Jeff Gordon’s on-again, off-again “drive for five” is back on, thanks to Johnson’s crash at Texas and Gordon’s 13th-place finish. Gordon is third, 112 behind Johnson. Gordon is still looking for that 83rd career victory, which will tie him with Cale Yarborough for fifth on the all-time list.

Spoiler roles: Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick

Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick could be the guys outside the Chase to watch this week. Busch nearly pulled off the ultimate sweep this past weekend at Texas, winning races in both the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series and the NASCAR Nationwide Series before falling just short in the NASCAR Sprint Cup event, due to running out of gas.

Busch is obviously on a roll – he’s closing in on winning the NASCAR Nationwide championship – and he also won the NASCAR Sprint Cup fall race in Phoenix back in 2005.

Harvick swept Phoenix’s two races in 2006; in the latter he posted a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0.

Both of these drivers will have plenty of track time at PIR, as they’re scheduled to run in all three events.

Stats: Phoenix a house of dominance

Phoenix is a place of dominance, so says the statistics. There have been two perfect Driver Ratings of 150.0 scored at Phoenix since the inception of the Loop Data stat in 2005. Only one other track has multiple perfect 150s – Pocono, with two.

Kurt Busch scored a perfect driver rating in April of 2005, the first 150.0 ever recorded. Kevin Harvick posted the second 150 at Phoenix, in November of 2006.

Johnson came close to a perfect 150 in his Phoenix win in November of last season, scoring a 149.9.

NASCAR NATIONWIDE SERIES

Kyle’s party could start early

He’s been waiting for this moment since he made his first NASCAR national series start on Aug. 3, 2001 in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series. Saturday at Phoenix, Kyle Busch could lay claim to his first national series title.

Busch was docked 25 driver points Wednesday due to an infraction by his No. 18 team a Texas Motor Speedway last weekend (improperly attached weight). His standings lead has been adjusted to reflect the penalty - he leads second-place Carl Edwards by 247 points. To clinch at Phoenix, Busch needs to lead by 195 points after the race. To guarantee that, he needs to finish at least 7th, or 9th with at least one lap led, or 10th and the most laps led.

To clinch at Homestead, Busch needs to average a 30th-place finish over the final two races, or a 32nd-place finish and a lap led in each of the final two races, or a 33rd-place finish and the most laps led in each of the final two races. If he does that, he'll clinch no matter what any other driver does.

The Vet versus the kid headlines top-10 challenges

The battle for fifth place is down to two drivers and two races. It’s also down to two distinctly different age ranges. Justin Allgiaer, the Raybestos Rookie standings leader, is 23. Mike Bliss, who began his NASCAR national series career 1995 when Allgaier was eight years old, is 21 years Allgaier’s senior.

Allgaier has been successful staving off one challenger – Steve Wallace – for the fifth spot. But over the last three races, Bliss has been charging.

At Texas, Allgaier was involved in an accident but managed to come back out to run precious laps that eventually paid off. Bliss gambled late, didn’t pit for new tires and saw a top-five finish and probable fifth-place standing go by the wayside. Allgaier finished 25th, and has a 13-point lead over Bliss heading to Phoenix.

Other top-10 standings challenges: Carl Edwards has a 20-point lead over third-place Brad Keselowski. Michael Annett, another Raybestos Rookie, is holding on to 10th, 34 points in front of 11th-place Michael McDowell. He’s also 62 points ahead of 12th-place Tony Raines and leads Kenny Wallace, 13th, by 65 points.

At PIR: Trio of trifectas; a champ’s tough call

Kyle Busch, two-time series champion Kevin Harvick and Kevin Conway are entered in all three races at Phoenix this weekend. Conway would be making his NASCAR Camping World Truck Series and NASCAR Sprint Cup debuts – he’s also running at Phoenix for the first time in all three series.

Jason Bowles, the 2009 NASCAR Camping World Series West champion will be making his series debut at PIR this weekend in the No. 61 Specialty Racing Ford for Doug Taylor. Bowles had to make a tough decision to make his debut – he’ll miss his championship awards banquet on Saturday in order to race.

NASCAR CAMPING WORLD TRUCK SERIES

Trucks head further west to Phoenix

The NASCAR Camping World Truck Series will roll on to Phoenix International Raceway for the Lucas Oil 150 this Friday night. Phoenix is the site of the series’ first race in 1995. Mike Skinner won the inaugural event and again the following year. Other former winners expected to compete include Ron Hornaday Jr., Kevin Harvick, David Starr, Todd Bodine, and Kyle Busch.

Hornaday’s clinch scenarios become clearer

Hornaday is on the verge of history, as he attempts to become the first ever four-time NASCAR Camping World Truck Series champion.

Here’s his clinch scenario: To clinch at Phoenix, Ron Hornaday needs to lead by 195 points after the race. If Hornaday wins at Phoenix, he'll clinch no matter what any other driver does.

To clinch at Homestead, Hornaday needs to average a 22nd place finish over the final two races, or 23rd and lead at least one lap in each of the final two races, or 25th and lead the most laps in each of the final two races. If he does that, he'll clinch no matter what any other driver does.

Kevin Harvick Inc. hoping to dominate in the desert

All eyes will be on Kevin Harvick Inc. at Phoenix this weekend. In his last four starts in the series at the 1-mile track, team owner and driver Kevin Harvick has collected three wins (2002, 2003, 2008) and a fifth place finish. In 14 starts at the track his teammate Ron Hornaday Jr. has two wins (1998, 1999), six top-five and three top-ten finishes.

Busch and Ballew continue to close in on owner’s title

With Kyle Busch’s win at Texas, his fifth in as many starts, Billy Ballew and the No. 51 team cut even further into the lead of DeLana Harvick and the No. 33 team of Ron Horanday Jr. in the battle for the owner’s title. Ballew is 75 points behind Harvick as they head into the penultimate race of the season. Should Ballew win the title, it would mark the first time in the series’ 15-year history that the owner’s championship did not belong to the driver champion team.

Double – and triple – duty driver set for NCTS race

Kyle Busch is the defending winner of the Lucas Oil 150. Also in this week’s field is Hornaday’s owner, Kevin Harvick, back-to-back Phoenix winner in 2002-03. NASCAR Nationwide Series title contender Brad Keselowski will make his first series appearance since June 2007 when he won the pole at Memphis Motorsports Park.