Adjusted state unemployment rate hits 17.2%

Arizonans have been told for months now that the state jobless rate is hovering in the low 9 percent range.

But it turns out that's pretty much only half the story - literally.

New federal figures show Arizona's real unemployment situation is already in double digits - 17.2 percent - when also accounting for people who are "underemployed" because they can't find full-time work and discouraged Arizonans who have given up their job search.

Law of supply and demand slams job centers

The figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show the actual average jobless rate for the last 12 months is closer to 9.5 percent. That's somewhat higher than the official rate, which is seasonally adjusted to account for what normally happens at different times of the year.

But even that doesn't paint a complete picture of the economy.

Amar Mann, an economist for the federal agency, said the "official" figure counts only those who tell surveyors that they are not working and are actively looking for a job.

When you add in the discouraged workers - those who say they want a job but have simply quit looking because there are none to be had - the rate jumps to 10 percent.

Add in those whom the BLS describes as "marginally attached" to the labor force. and the annual figure slips up to 10.7 percent. These include not only the discouraged workers but those who say they have looked for work of some sort in the last year.

And by the time you consider those who have part-time jobs who want - but can't get - full-time work, the figure hits 17.2 percent.

"When we consider those that are also underemployed, it gives a much more complete, fuller picture of the job market," Mann said. "(It's) not just the folks that are out of work and can't find work but those that are not getting enough work and want to be working more but are having to settle for marginal type of work, odd contracting jobs or part-time jobs."

Mann said the Arizona numbers, like those from the rest of the country, are based on a random survey done each month of households.

"They are very careful in the way it is structured to not lead a respondent down a certain path," he said. Mann said the question is closer to "what did you do last week" rather than did someone actually work or look for it.

"They get to the answer in kind of an indirect way," he said.

Arizona's 17.2 percent rate of what the BLS calls unemployed and underemployed is higher than the national average of 15.2 percent. But it is not the worst: Michigan leads the nation at more than 20 percent, followed by Oregon and California.

The BLS figures do not detail in what sector of the economy most of Arizona's discouraged and part-time workers are located. But figures from the state Department of Commerce suggests a good percentage of them are construction workers.

At its peak in June 2006, there were nearly 248,000 people employed in construction. That computes out to close to 9 percent of everyone who was working in Arizona at the time.

As of September, construction employment was 137,700. And it reflected less than 6 percent of the work force.

The number of workers in the state's trade and transportation sector is off 15 percent from its peak, with manufacturing down nearly as much.

About the only segment of the economy that has remained relatively stable is private education and health services, which are measured together as a single sector. But much of that has been due largely to the demand for more health workers to care for a growing elderly population.