Study: Losing Cubs would cost state $52M

Without the Chicago Cubs and their die-hard fans showing up in Arizona every spring training season, the Cactus League could lose $31.1 million and Arizona more than $52 million by way of reduced economic activity, according to a study commissioned by Mesa released Wednesday.

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PDF: Cubs economic impact study

That would further snowball into more than 650 jobs lost and $21 million in lost wages, according to the report, prepared by Alan Maguire of The Maguire Company of Phoenix.

The $25,000 study touting the economic and brand value of the Cubs is Mesa's way of putting together a blueprint of what's been until now anecdotal evidence that every time the Cubs play at home or away, odds are the stadiums get packed with a sea of blue and their greenbacks.

That means more revenue in not just ticket sales but other ancillary expenses that typically come with visitors - more shopping, hotel rooms and restaurant business, and all that filters down to help boost local economies.

The study comes at a time when Mesa Mayor Scott Smith, City Manager Chris Brady and House Speaker Kirk Adams, R-Mesa, are planning a trip to the Windy City to persuade Cubs ownership to keep Mesa as their spring training home, especially now that the team has been courted by at least two Florida Grapefruit League cities.

"The Cubs' impact is distinctive," said Brady, who also plans to show a four-page brochure chock-full of numbers supporting that statement to the state Legislature and other Cactus League members to illustrate Mesa - and Arizona - stands to lose if the Cubs leave for Florida.

At present, the Cactus League has 14 teams, but the Cubs are by far the most popular, with nearly double the attendance of the average team.

The Cubs want Mesa to come up with better training and attendance facilities for the team and its fans. But the multimillion-dollar question, of course, is: Who ponies up the money?

At this point, Brady said, the tenor from the Cubs' end appears to be tilting toward building a new stadium and training facility for the "lovable losers." That could cost about $70 million to $80 million. Renovations and expansion of the existing Fitch Park training facility could cost up to $18 million.

Brady hopes to start discussions about raising the money through a combination of private parties along with help from the state and other Cactus League members. How they would help is unclear at this point.

City officials have been in talks with several private parties interested in helping build a new stadium and training facility. Brady and Smith have said the focus for a new site has been around the Mesa Proving Ground on the city's southeast side. That site is owned by DMB Associates of Scottsdale.

Brady said Mesa has to be creative in funding renovations or a new facility, possibly by creating a special district as a financing mechanism. The city's efforts would be bolstered by showing the value of the Cubs to other cities and teams playing in Arizona.

The Cubs can exercise their $4.2 million opt-out clause in their 20-year agreement with Mesa next year to leave the city in 2012. The team has to give Mesa a two-year notice if it plans to leave. But Brady said the city is currently in talks with the Cubs to rework that agreement and let them give a one-year notice instead of two years. That would give both parties more leeway to figure out future plans, instead of forcing the Cubs to opt out by next spring, Brady said.

Unlike Hohokam Stadium, which is next to a cemetery and residential neighborhoods, a new site could help Mesa capture revenue dollars by placing it closer to restaurants and retail, Brady said. City leaders also plan to improve fans' experience year-round, not just during spring training, to expand revenue-generation opportunities. Using the Cubs' brand name to attract team-oriented retail and other activities like fantasy camps could also be a big draw, he added.

The Cubs have been at Hohokam Park in Mesa since 1979. The Chicago team consistently leads in overall attendance at home games and in average attendance. Last year the Cubs generated about 96,000 hotel room nights, of which Mesa captured 34,000.

According to an analysis by Elliott D. Pollack & Company, if the Cubs were to leave Hohokam and be replaced by an average team, there would be 144,000 fewer attendees, a patron loss of 9 percent.

Brady said even if the Cubs were to leave Hohokam and Fitch, the city would focus on getting another team to move in and not "mothball" the facilities.