Valley home prices down for 18th straight month

Home prices across the Valley dropped for the 18th straight month in August, breaking the region’s record for consecutive months of falling prices, according to the latest Arizona State University–Repeat Sales Index.

“If you go back to the Great Depression, you might find something like this,” said Karl Guntermann, the Fred E. Taylor Professor of Real Estate in the W.P. Carey School of Business.

The index compared August 2008 to August 2007, and shows that during this period prices dropped 26 percent in the Valley. Repeat sales compare the prices of a single house at different points in time.

Prices had dropped 24 percent between July 2007 and July 2008.

“The overall appreciation (in the Valley) was 76 percent and right now we’re down 30 percent,” Guntermann said. “The median price in August ... was $186,000, which takes it all the way back to January 2005 when prices were then on the way up.”

By every measure, the current collapse of the residential real estate market has surpassed the prolonged property downturn of the 1980s-1990s, according to W.P. Carey School date.

Using some the major Phoenix metro communities as indicators, the depth of this real estate downturn as compared to 20 years ago is apparent, ASU researchers said.

From 1989 through 1991, Glendale experienced the biggest drop in home prices, 19.6 percent, of all Valley communities. For the years 2006 through 2008, home prices dropped 35.1 percent.

For the years 1989-1991, Peoria fared decently with home prices dropping 7.3 percent. From 2006-2008, Peoria experienced a fate similar to that of Glendale’s — home prices deflated 36.3 percent.

Sun City/Sun City West also had a bad time in 1989-1991, with home price dropping 10.5 percent. From 2006-2008, the rate of decline more than doubled to 24 percent.

Things definitely look bleak for Phoenix area homeowners, but Guntermann sees some positive signs — most importantly that the month-to-month declines are coming at a decreasing rate. Early in 2008, he says the declines on a month-to-month basis were actually increasing, which was very scary for homeowners.

Homeowners still want to know where the bottom is and how much their houses will be worth, says Guntermann.

“I can’t see the bottom in price, but I can see the bottom in the rate of decline, which will probably end up to be around 30 percent.”

At that point, home price declines should start to improve, Guntermann adds. “Then once that rate of decline hits zero, the Phoenix market will have finally bottomed out. But don’t get your hopes up, that’s not on the near horizon.”