Obama or McCain? Ariz. hinges on voter turnout

The presidential election in Arizona is barreling toward a heated final-day finish that will tilt on which campaign does a better of job of getting supporters to voting booths on Election Day, said veteran political analyst and pollster Bruce Merrill.

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Polls show Obama, McCain in dead heat in Arizona

Republican Sen. John McCain leads Democratic Sen. Barack Obama by just 2 percentage points in McCain’s home state, according to a Cronkite/Eight poll released Tuesday. McCain’s advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error of 3 percentage points for each candidate, making the race a statistical tossup.

The survey’s findings are even thinner than those of two other surveys released this week.

“If you live in Arizona, just because the senator lives here, doesn’t make you immune to the same trends that are happing in the country,” Merrill said. “One might actually say it’s surprising McCain hasn’t done worse, considering the roof fell in with the financial thing.”

Kurt Davis, co-leader of McCain’s campaign in Arizona, cast doubt on the flurry of last-second polls.

“I can show you one tracking poll that can show you one thing, and I’ll show you another tracking poll that will show something dramatically different, in the same area done at the same time,” he said on Monday.

A recent survey conducted for Project New West, a Democratic advocacy group, had McCain ahead by 4 percentage points in Arizona, while a survey conducted by Rasmussen Reports had him leading by 5 points.

Voters in Arizona, like voters in other Western states such as New Mexico, Colorado, Montana and Nevada, steadily have been abandoning McCain for months, said Merrill, survey director for the Cronkite/Eight poll.

On Aug. 19, McCain held a 10-point lead in Arizona, according to a Cronkite/Eight poll. By Sept. 30, that had dipped to 7 points. The $700 billion taxpayer-funded Wall Street bailout package, as well as McCain’s gamble in selecting Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, are the two biggest factors working against him, Merrill said.

McCain’s seemingly rudderless campaign strategy has hurt his efforts as well, Merrill said.

“He just chases sound bites,” Merrill said. “I mean, for three days he’s criticizing something (Obama running mate Joe) Biden said. Then the next three days he’s criticizing something Obama said. Then the next three days he’s doing something else.”

Meanwhile, the back-to-back-to-back polls this week are inspiring and motivating Obama’s campaign workers across Arizona, said Obama campaign spokesman Dave Cieslak.

“We have people now who are going to be knocking on doors for the next seven days, making thousands of calls, and making sure people are sending in their early ballots and voting on Nov. 4,” he said.

“We’re still working as hard today as we were yesterday — and even harder tomorrow,” Cieslak said.

Obama’s campaign is picking up support from independents and Republicans, he said.

Davis said he is unconcerned about the polls.

The survey showed that supporters for both candidates are strongly committed.

Of those who said they support McCain, 94 percent said they won’t change their mind before actually voting. Of those who backed Obama, 93 percent said they will stay with him to the end.

Davis said McCain’s campaign workers are committed to keeping up the efforts that for months for have positioned the Republican to take his home state. Davis noted that thousands of Arizonans have already voted with early ballots.

The Cronkite/Eight poll of 1,019 voters statewide was conducted Thursday through Sunday by Arizona State University’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and KAET-TV (Channel 8). It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, according to the pollsters.