Polls show Obama, McCain in dead heat in Arizona

Presidential contenders John McCain and Barack Obama are running in a statistical dead heat in Arizona, according to two surveys released Monday, a troubling development for the home-state senator.

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And a third survey scheduled for release today will offer a similar assessment.

With just a week to go before Election Day, and weeks after early voting began, Arizona is too close to call, according to research directors who oversaw the surveys.

This is how the numbers stacked up:

A poll conducted for Project New West, a Democratic advocacy group, had McCain ahead by 4 percentage points, with a margin of error of 4 points for each candidate.

The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted Thursday and Friday by Myers Research & Strategic Services of Springfield, Va., and Grove Insight of Portland, Ore.

A survey conducted by the independent polling firm Rasmussen Reports had McCain up by 5 percentage points, with a margin of error of 4.5 points for each candidate.

The poll of 500 likely voters was done Sunday, according to Rasmussen of Vienna, Va.

A poll conducted by Arizona State University/KAET-TV 8 and set for release today will also project the race as a tossup. "It's dead even in Arizona, which is consistent with the other two polls," ASU/KAET research director Bruce Merrill said Monday.

The latest round of survey results mark a dramatic shift from double-digit leads McCain held only a month ago. For example, Rasmussen had McCain ahead by 21 percentage points in a survey released on Sept. 29.

Kurt Davis, a co-leader of McCain's Arizona campaign, dismissed the surveys as "interesting scientific theory" but meaningless so close to Election Day.

"I'm tired of the pundits and pollsters telling us what we're going to be doing on Election Day, when most of them have no idea what they're talking about," he said.

Most surveys so close to the election are based on small polling samples and are adjusted by pollsters to reflect the broader demographics of the entire voting base, he said. As a result, the findings are only as good as the methodology that led to them.

"John McCain will win Arizona. He's won every election he's run here in Arizona since 1982," Davis said.

Former Arizona Democratic Party Chairman David Waid put more faith in the surveys. He noted that the new polls were the first to be conducted after the federal government's $700 billion Wall Street bailout package was approved.

Both McCain, R-Ariz., and Obama, D-Ill., voted to support the bailout.

"So much has moved so fast in this country, and Arizona is no exception to that," Waid told the Tribune.

"In that period of time, when everyone was looking the other way, voters were changing their minds in large numbers. Where this comes from - no surprise - is a deep concern about the economy, and deep concern about Sen. McCain's understanding of the challenges and his ability to tackle them," he said.

Other factors that were certain to have moved potential voters from red to blue were McCain's selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate, and Obama's strong performances in the debates, Waid said.

The Project New West poll also showed that among Arizona voters who had already completed their ballots, Obama held the edge 47 percent to 46 percent. The 1-point advantage is well within the margin of error, but it's still "a pretty incredible place to be" in a race against the home-state senator, Waid said.