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More than 47,000 in Ariz. expected to lose jobs
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Arizona’s workforce just got a whole lot shakier.
The state Department of Commerce Thursday delivered a revised employment forecast that calls for a drastic increase in the number of non-farm jobs lost through 2009. The agency now is forecasting more than 47,000 jobs lost statewide, up from 9,200 it originally forecast earlier this year.
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"It is a fairly substantial revision from what we have seen given the fact that they're only six months apart," said Dennis Doby, senior director of the department's Research Administration."The first half of the year was basically floating around zero growth rate, and now we expect over the year losses to continue through 2008 and 2009 before we start to see recovery."
Economic recovery in Arizona will be delayed until late 2009 and early 2010 because of higher commodity prices, especially for food and energy, stagnant incomes and the effects of the crisis in finance and housing, according to the forecast.
A loss of 34,000 jobs is expected this year followed by 13,500 more jobs next year.
Also Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported new applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to a seven-year high because of the weakening economy and the impact of recent hurricanes. Initial claims reached the highest level since just after the terrorist attacks of Sept 11, 2001.
Global Insight, a national economics forecasting and consulting firm, expects national nonfarm employment to remain unchanged this year and then shrink by 150,000, a slim margin, next year.
"Global Insight is forecasting that the national economy will be essentially flat for 2008 and 2009, and if you look at our forecast, we're going to be below that and into negative territory," Doby said. "The housing-related woes have hit us and other states that have a lot of housing dependence. We have been hit a little harder and the downturn has been steeper here."
Construction is expected to take the biggest hit, losing more than 44,000 jobs through 2009.
Health care is one industry that always will continue adding new jobs because demand never slows, said Lois Roorda, a human resources consultant at Banner Heart Hospital in Mesa.
"Even when the economy is not its best, there are still people and people will always need health care," she said. "Babies will be born, and all kinds of things happen in the arena of health care related to the population."
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