Dist. 17 now has more Democrats than Republicans

Arizona Legislative District 17 never was a Republican stronghold, but the party always held an advantage on the voter rolls.

Not anymore.

The residents of north Tempe, including Arizona State University, and south Scottsdale have shifted their allegiances enough to alter the face of East Valley politics. For the first time since redistricting earlier this decade, in the count of registered voters the GOP trails the Democratic Party.

According to the Arizona Secretary of State's most recent tally, Democrats hold a lead of nearly 1,700 voters, or 2.3 percentage points. Before the 2002 primary elections, that edge was in the Republicans' favor by 5.2 points.

Meanwhile, the percentage of independents, at 28.2, has held steady since 2004.

Why did the voter rolls swing left? According to the candidates and a political expert, it was both a change in the electorate and the electorate reacting to changes.

"You either get new people, or get old people to change their views," said David Berman, professor emeritus in ASU's political science department.

The students arriving on campus are following a nationwide trend, registering with the Democratic Party in greater numbers. And the long-time residents of the district are turning their backs on the GOP, according to Berman.

With the struggles the Republican Party is having and the immense anger toward President Bush, people would rather be an independent or a Democrat, said Rep. Ed Ableser, who along with House colleague David Schapira and Sen. Meg Burton Cahill are all Democrats seeking second terms.

Challenging the incumbents are three Republicans, Mark Thompson and Wes Waddle for the House and Jesse Hernandez for the Senate.

There is no contested primary on Sept. 2 on either side, since each party will advance two House candidate and one Senate nominee to the Nov. 4 general election.

But it is a candidate at the federal level credited for the Democrats' rise in District 17.

Rep. Harry Mitchell was elected to Congress two years ago, but he will always be known for his deep Tempe ties: 28 years as a high school teacher; 24 years on the City Council, including four terms as mayor.

Tempe's elected officials are nonpartisan, but when Mitchell ran for the Arizona Senate in 1998 there was a "D" next to his name. Still, voters liked Mitchell enough that his party was an afterthought.

Berman believes Mitchell's election to the Senate was a trigger for the change.

"People gave him a shot, and they liked what he did," said Berman, a senior research fellow at ASU's Morrison Institute.

That opened the door for more Democrats to step up, to the voters' approval. The party swept the district in 2006, sending Mitchell to Congress, and Burton Cahill, Ableser and Schapira to the Legislature.

"Harry gets people to take a good look at the Democratic message without lifting a finger," Schapira said.

What came later, Berman explained, were those voters actually changing their party affiliation.

Thompson actually held a District 17 House seat, during happier times for the Republicans. He was elected in 2002 and then lost to Burton Cahill two years later.

In the interim, the battleground changed to Thompson's disadvantage. Now, he expects the race to be won in the middle.

"I believe the candidates on both sides will have to hold on to their bases and court the independents," Thompson said.

Thompson is excited for the down-ticket help that GOP presidential candidate Sen. John McCain can offer to his fellow Arizonans. McCain is Arizona's senior senator, and began his career by running for Congress in Tempe.

Then again, the Democrats anticipate their party's nominee for the White House, Sen. Barack Obama, can put a charge into ASU's at-times fickle student body.

"He'll excite that base of young, idealistic voters who are wanting to see changes," Ableser said.

During appearances in Tempe before the 2006 election, Obama drew huge crowds. And in February's presidential preference election, Mitchell's congressional district was the only one of Arizona's eight to back Obama over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.

Schapira said when Obama makes his next local appearance, "people like Ed and I get to stand up on stage and speak to 7,000 without spending a penny."