My old political science professor taught me that elections aren’t as mystifying as they are made out to be, because you can rely upon some fairly reliable givens.

Read Mark Scarp's blog, 'Scarpsdale'

One was that in any given presidential election, you can count on about 40 percent of voters to quickly conclude they’re voting Democratic, because that’s how they almost always vote, and a like number similarly decides to vote Republican, for the same reason.

The election is thus decided by the 20 percent who really mean it when they say they vote, not for “the party,” but for “the candidate.”

Likewise, very few congressional districts reflect “the candidate” voting.

Nearly all can be truly be described every two years as safe for one or the other major political party.

With apologies to Barack Obama, while we talk a good game about throwing out rascals and demanding new blood, most Americans just don’t like change. They are hard-pressed, most of the time, to unseat incumbents without glaring and rare reasons.

The north East Valley’s 3rd Congressional District (formerly the 4th) has been represented by a Republican since most anyone can remember.

Democrats with forgotten names have attempted to scale this peak over the years, the last one, Herb Paine in 2006, having raised only $102,521 to battle the incumbent, U.S. Rep. John Shadegg, R-Ariz., who raised $1.08 million, according to Federal Election Commission reports.

In the general election, Shadegg swamped Paine, who to that point had raised the most of any Democrat who ever faced the then-six-term Shadegg.

Bob Lord is the latest Democrat to climb this steep peak. We met for coffee Thursday, where he made it clear that he’s planning on a close race.

He also plans to raise $2 million.

Big talk, that. But so far, FEC statistics show, Lord has raised $832,747, obliterating Paine’s total.

Now, so far this year Shadegg has raised $1.2 million, better than in 2006.

Still, Lord claims that 70 percent of his financial contributions come from Republicans who like his stands.

Gentle in demeanor yet confident in his arguments, the Scottsdale tax and business attorney doesn’t come across like someone who’s been planning to run for Congress for 20 years.

That characterization is more apt for many members of the herd of GOP hopefuls seeking to unseat U.S. Rep. Harry Mitchell, D-Ariz. Two years ago, the former Tempe mayor won in a district, the 5th, that was also in Republican hands for many years — and maintains a centrist approach (including devoted pursuit of veterans issues and bucking the Democratic leadership on recent budget bills) that must certainly frustrate his foes.

Lord appears to be following Mitchell’s example. It worked once, at least.