Arizona's congressional team faces turnover

Arizona's congressional delegation is heading for a major realignment in the fall, with replacements for Reps. Rick Renzi and John Shadegg at a minimum, and possible successors for Sen. John McCain, and Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords, too.

Read Paul Giblin's politcal blog

If all five seats change, and that's certainly plausible, the turnover would account for half of the state's 10-member delegation.

"After Jan. 1, we could have a congressional district that doesn't look anything like it does today," said Doug Cole, vice president of High Ground, a Phoenix-based political consulting firm.

The newest possible future congressional members are Arizona Corporation Commissioner Kris Mayes in Renzi's seat, and former state Rep. Steve May or former political staffer Wes Gullett in Shadegg's seat.

The churn is being generated by Renzi's and Shadegg's retirements, McCain's presidential aspirations, and serious efforts by challengers to oust Mitchell and Giffords after a single term each.

1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Renzi, a third-term Republican who is under FBI investigation for possible public corruption, announced on Aug. 23 that he will not seek re-election in the vast, mostly rural district.

Democratic opponents started positioning themselves for a race even earlier, setting up a four-way primary race among political veterans and newcomers alike.

Meanwhile, the Republican side is still fluid. Radio talk show host Sydney Hay of Munds Park is in. Other possible candidates are Mayes, who was born and raised in Prescott and lives in Phoenix, and state Rep. Andy Tobin of Paulden.

State Sen. Jake Flake of Snowflake, state Rep. Bill Konopnicki of Safford, and state Sen. Tom O'Halleran of Sedona, all considered the race and all decided against it. Mayes earlier considered it and rejected it, but reconsidered.

"I have been elected statewide, and a lot of folks have asked me to consider getting into the race, so that's what I'll be doing over the next couple of weeks," Mayes told the Tribune on Wednesday.

If she runs, she'll move back to Prescott, which is in the district, she said. Her experience on the Corporation Commission would serve her well in Congress, she said.

"This congressional district could be the epicenter of renewable energy development in this country. That would bring new jobs to the district and economic development," said Mayes, a former spokeswoman for Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano.

Tobin said he'll make his determination in about a month, after addressing business concerns.

3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT

Shadegg's unexpected announcement Monday that he'll retire at the end of his current term spawned a bumper crop of instant would-be GOP successors in the small, urban district.

Paradise Valley Mayor Ed Winkler said Tuesday he'll run. May told the Tribune on Wednesday he's in. Additional GOP contenders could crowd into a potential nine-way battle royale in the primary.

May, 36, retired two weeks ago after reaching deals to sell his interests in two companies. He said he's willing to plow $1 million from the proceeds into a congressional campaign, which makes him instantly credible.

"I'm not sitting around thinking about it. I'm doing it," he said. "That's my home and that's where I always wanted to serve and I'm excited to have the opportunity."

He said he wants to be part of a new Republican majority that reclaims its fiscal perspective.

May served in the Legislature from 1998 to 2002, and lost the office by 58 votes in a race that pitted three incumbents for two state House seats in a newly redistricted district.

May reached national attention while in office for his conflict with the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy.

He previously served in the Army without incident. After he was discharged, he won public office as an openly gay Republican. The Army recalled him in 1999, but didn't realize he had already told everybody.

The Army tried to discharge him, and after two years President Bill Clinton intervened and May was permitted to finish his tour of duty.

Wes Gullett said both he and his wife, Deb, a former state representative, considered running for Shadegg's seat.

"We thought we'd have a contest and run against each other to see who is the most popular," said Wes Gullett, a political consultant who previously served as Sen. John McCain's state director and Gov. Fife Symington's chief of staff.

After serious consideration, Deb Gullett opted out and Wes Gullett decided to give it more consideration. "There comes a time in your life when you want to serve and be engaged in the process a little more dramatic way, in a more thoughtful and active way. This may be it," he said.

SENATE

In a conference call with political bloggers Wednesday, McCain said he will consider resigning his Senate seat only after winning the Republican presidential nomination. If he leaves office either before or after the presidential election, state law requires Napolitano to appoint a Republican to finish his Senate term, which runs through 2010.

5TH AND 8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS

Republicans are intent to win back the 5th District from Mitchell and the 8th District from Giffords.

Mitchell has five, and possibly six, GOP opponents, including Arizona Corporation Commissioner Jeff Hatch-Miller, who moved from the 3rd District to the 5th District to challenge him. Giffords will face state Senate President Keith Bee in the district that covers part of Tucson and the southeast corner of the state.