An NCAA tournament bid awaits if ASU can figure out a way to win enough to impress selectors

First come the disclaimers: The calendar says mid-January. NCAA Selection Sunday isn’t until March 16. It’s an eternity away. Everyone knows it.

But after beating Arizona for the second time in 12 years Wednesday night, the Arizona State men’s basketball team is atop the Pac-10 standings.

Premature though it may be, an undefeated start to Pac-10 play means March Madness is no longer a myth.

“We happened to win tonight’s game,” ASU coach Herb Sendek said Wednesday, well aware the Wildcats will host the Sun Devils in early February with freshman phenom Jerryd Bayless back in the lineup. “No more. No less.”

True.

But the Sun Devils also have started their season, as junior Jeff Pendergraph said, in “uncharted territory.” ASU has a good chance of cracking next week’s Associated Press Top 25 for the first time since 1995.

Ultimately, both player and coach are right.

So let’s throw Sendek’s caution to the wind. Can the Sun Devils make the Dance with, say, a 9-9 conference record?

Things are about to get more interesting. ASU has completed 16.7 percent of its conference schedule, and it’s only going to get more difficult starting with the first Pac-10 road trip next weekend.

Five of ASU’s next seven games are on the road.

“I’d say let’s win one consecutive road game before we get too excited,” said Jerry Palm, who operates the collegerpi.com Web site. “It’s a long way to go.”

Palm’s Ratings Percentage Index is a pivotal tool used to determine the 34 at-large tournament bids on Selection Sunday (the first 31 are automatic qualifiers for winning their conference tournament).

It helps to play in the third-toughest conference behind the ACC and Big East. Given the Pac-10’s quality and depth, few would be surprised if the league moved its way up during the next two months.

With strength of schedule (ASU is currently 222nd in Division I), road wins and late-season play pivotal in the minds of the selection committee, Palm said getting seven teams from the Pac-10 in “would be a ton.”

Others wouldn’t be shocked by more.

“Historically, it’s easy to say (eight or nine teams) won’t get in because it’s never happened,” ESPN analyst Jay Bilas said. “Are there nine in the top 50 or top 60 (RPI)? Then they’ve got a chance. That’s going to be the measure.”

So far, the Sun Devils have swept their home games (11-0), which featured wins against the RPI’s top 40 in Xavier (No. 9), Arizona (No. 13) and Oregon (No. 40).

The Sun Devils’ strength of schedule figures to go up during Pac-10 play, but a weak overall nonconference slate (according to the RPI) will likely keep ASU among the bubble teams.

Of the 14 teams who have gone 9-9 in Pac-10 games, none made it to the Big Dance. Only three have had at least 17 wins: Washington State (21) and ASU (18) in 1991-92; Stanford (18) in 1989-90. If ASU goes 9-9 in the conference it will have 19 wins before the Pac-10 tournament starts.

Bill Frieder’s Sun Devils went 11-7 in 1993 and 10-8 in 1994 and went to the NIT both times. That could change this season if ASU can go .500 the rest of the season and the conference lives up to its current billing.

“If a Pac-10 team goes 9-9 and doesn’t get in there’s something wrong,” Bilas said.

There’s also the way in which a 9-9 team reaches March. Do the Sun Devils win, say, six or seven out of the final 10 and win a couple conference tournament games? Or do they struggle down the stretch and make an immediate exit from the Pac-10 tournament?

Either way, six more victories — though hardly a given — will crank up the water-cooler banter.

“Anybody out West who’s 9-9 will at least entertain conversation, which isn’t necessarily true in most other leagues,” Palm said.

It’s only mid-January. Then again, ASU hasn’t been undefeated in conference play this late since 1987, so let the madness commence.

“When you win these close games you get more and more confident,” Frieder said. “They’ll play most teams and be competitive. Can they win 10 or 11, I don’t know that but it’s a team that’ll give a run at it.

“It’s worth talking about it and it’s time for ASU fans to get excited.”

Gotta Have It

Jan. 24 vs. Washington

Jan. 26 vs. Washington State: This will be hard, but any wins against a UCLA or Washington State would be a boon, and the Sun Devils best chance is at home 36 hours after a Cougars’ trip to Tucson.

Feb. 16 vs. Cal

March 1 vs. USC

Mar. 8 at Oregon State: Unless the Beavers find a way to move up drastically in the RPI, a loss in the regular season finale could be crippling.

March 12-15: At least one victory in Pac-10 Tournament

Better Some Than None

Jan. 17 at Cal

Jan. 19 at Stanford: Next week is a big road trip for this young team to handle its first big-time conference road game. Two competitive losses in the Bay Area wouldn’t spell doom, but a split would be helpful.

Feb. 2 at USC

Feb. 14 vs. Stanford

Feb. 23 at Washington

Don’t Count On It

Jan. 31 at UCLA: Stranger things happen every year, but not many occur in Pauley Pavilion, and if ASU falls to a top-10 team, the experience will outweigh the minimal damage suffered in the RPI rankings.

Feb. 10 at Arizona

Feb. 21 at Washington State

Feb. 28 vs. UCLA

Pac-10 in the RPI

11. UCLA (13-2, 2-0)

13. Arizona (10-5, 1-2)

28. Washington State (13-0, 2-0)

38. Stanford (12-2, 1-1)

40. Oregon (10-4, 1-1)

61. Arizona State (13-2, 3-0)

68. California (10-3, 1-1)

72. USC (9-5, 0-2)

110. Washington (9-5, 0-1)

247. Oregon State (6-8, 0-2)