The Arizona presidential primary is less than three months away. Do you know who will get your vote? The election is set for Feb. 5, a date that’s been dubbed Super Duper Tuesday because 23 states will hold their primary elections then.

GRAPHIC: Super Duper Tuesday

Read Paul Giblin's blog, Checking In

Napolitano chooses Feb. 5 for Arizona's primary elections

Depending on the voters’ moods, the Republican and Democratic presidential primary nominations could effectively be wrapped up by the next morning.

Political strategists in both parties expect Arizona voters to play a major role leading up to and on the fateful day. The most important factors:

• Arizona voters, who are on the front lines of immigration issues, will force the presidential candidates to sharpen their positions on immigration and border issues.

• Sen. John McCain’s candidacy will focus attention on Arizona voters, because he needs his home state’s votes to keep his viability.

• Democratic political insiders suggest Arizona voters will get extra attention by the candidates because the state will be a battleground state in the November 2008 general election. Republicans, however, are less likely to agree with that contention.

One important consideration that shouldn’t be overlooked, according to Arizona Secretary of State Jan Brewer, is that Arizona actually will conduct a presidential “preference” election, rather than a presidential “primary” election.

The key difference is that in a presidential preference election, only voters registered in specific political parties will be able to participate in their respective party’s voting.

Democrats will vote on the Democratic side and Republicans on the Republican side.

Independents will have to stay home or change their registration before the primary.

According the state’s Oct. 1 voter registration figures, 754,607 statewide are registered as independents. That means 28.1 percent of the state’s would-be voters actually could be nonvoters on Feb. 5.

“As we get closer to the presidential preference elections in 2008 ... I have no doubt that we will see party registrations significantly climb,” Brewer said when she released the figures last month.

The final date for Arizona residents to register or re-register in time to participate in the Feb. 5 presidential preference elections is Jan. 7.

Immigration is already one of the top campaign issues, but candidates in both parties are certain to detail their positions on immigration as the Arizona election nears, said political analyst Bruce Merrill, a journalism professor at Arizona State University.

“My suspicion is their people will do polls; they will know people are concerned about immigration here. So I think you’ll see a lot of the discussion directed toward illegal immigration,” he said.

Since immigration issues are up-close and personal to many Arizonans, voters here will spurn candidates trying to pass off slogans as policy, said former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon, a Republican who serves as co-chairman of McCain’s state campaign. “You have to get deeper,” he said.

So far, most presidential contenders have used broad strokes to address immigration while campaigning through the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, he said. For voters in those states, that’s probably enough.

“They don’t really live it like we do,” Salmon said. “They don’t see the complete effects on the East Coast. I think Texas does. I think California does. I think New Mexico and Colorado do. We’re the ones that are the hardest-hit.”

Arizona, Texas, California, New Mexico and Colorado, incidentally, are all Super Duper Tuesday states.

Arizona voters are already versed on details of immigration policy and will demand nuanced platforms from the presidential candidates, said Emily Bittner, spokeswoman for the Arizona Democratic Party.

“The quality of the conversation will improve,” she said. “We’ve been having a substantial conversation about it in this state for some time, and people don’t want one idea to solve this problem. They want a wide range of ideas that will, from the federal perspective, be a comprehensive immigration solution.”

Arizona voters also identify the Iraq war, the economy and health care as important, but less geographically specific, issues in the campaign, Merrill said.

McCain’s candidacy by itself will give Arizona prime-time attention before Feb. 5.

It will be essential for him to defend his home state to maintain national credibility. And conversely, it would be a coup for Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani or another Republican candidate to top him here.

Salmon said: “In past campaigns, typically speaking, candidates kind of kept an arm’s length from a state where one of their opponents is from. That hasn’t been the case this time, especially with Romney.”

Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, and his son Josh have been campaigning and raising money in Arizona for months. Romney’s push has forced McCain to stump in Arizona more than he might have initially anticipated, Salmon said.

“Arizona voters are so temperamental. If you ignore them, they’ll punish you at the ballot box. They will. You can’t take anything for granted in Arizona. You can’t,” he said.

Meanwhile, Democrats see Arizona as a battleground for a different reason.

Voter registration numbers show the state’s voter base is divided nearly in thirds — 38.2 percent Republican, 33 percent Democrat and 28.1 percent independent. Less than 1 percent is Libertarian.

That, plus Arizonans’ willingness, even eagerness, to vote Democratic, as demonstrated by the 2006 off-year election, puts Arizona in play, the Democrats’ Bittner said. Last year, voters replaced two Republican congressmen with Democrats.

At the national level, Democratic strategists see Arizona as one of four Western states that could tilt for either party’s eventual presidential nominee. The others are Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

Because of that, all the presidential contenders are likely to spend considerable amounts of time in Arizona before and after the primary.

“The entire inter-mountain West is really important to the 2008 presidential election. Both national parties, but especially the Democrats, have made a real commitment to the West,” Bittner said.