La Niña promises warm winter

Enjoying the balmy weather and sunny skies? Then you’ll be pleased to hear the prediction of a warm, dry winter.

Wind advisory issued in state

Graphic: Winter weather outlook

But if you plan on living in the Valley for a while, the news of a growing La Niña weather system on top of an existing drought should raise concern.

Federal climatologists recently updated the 2007-08 U.S. winter outlook, and the forecast called for “above-average temperatures over most of the country and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions across much of the Southwest and Southeast.”

That means Arizona’s drought, now in its 13th year, most likely isn’t ending soon.

At the local bureau of the National Weather Service, an expert wonders if this is another step toward the Valley’s future of brown lawns, dry canals and the population boom halted due to thirst.

“The water supply issue is getting closer to the front page, but not necessarily with dead cattle and huge cracks little children are falling in,” said Tony Haffer, meteorologist in charge of the Weather Service’s Phoenix office.

Only one year since 1996 has the rainfall in Phoenix exceeded the annual norm of 8.3 inches. The current total for 2007 is less than 3 inches, and it appears certain this year will be one of the driest in that span.

“The handwriting is clearly on the wall that we need to recognize we live in a desert,” Haffer said.

The brewing La Niña system, if it holds up, will exacerbate the drought. During a La Niña, the waters of the tropical Pacific Ocean cool below normal levels and the effect in Arizona is less rain and snow than usual.

Meanwhile, the reservoir system of Salt River Project is literally half-full — or half-empty, depending on one’s frame of mind. The six lakes have been receding to their current level of exactly 50 percent since the torrents and snowstorms of early 2005.

“We’ve been in worse situations,” SRP spokeswoman Patricia Garcia-Likens said.

The utility placed restrictions on water use in 2003, but dropped those two years later when the wet winter filled reservoirs to levels not seen in more than 15 years.

Despite the prediction of warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the nation this winter, American homeowners won’t be getting a break on their heating bills. The average price of heating fuels is up about 10 percent from last year, according to a report issued earlier this month by federal energy analysts.

Haffer, looking hard for a silver lining in a cloudless sky, saw an upside to the winter outlook prepared by his agency’s parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

“Yeah, it’ll be clear out there and warm, and great to golf in,” Haffer said. “But do we really want 10 years of this weather? That might even cause the golf courses to go brown.”