Remember when "cognitive dissonance" was in vogue to explain why things didn't square? It's that queasiness you get from hearing conflicting ideas simultaneously. Experts say we are naturally moved to reduce dissonance and that might happen by changing attitudes, beliefs and actions.
That's one of the feelings I get as I see many jumping the gun and reading into the 2010 Census's Hispanic numbers as if they are fortune tellers. Some commentators (often partisans, I might add) are quick to point out that Democrats are now stronger than ever and Republicans are disadvantaged, maybe for decades, if they recover at all.
The release of the 2010 census got political analysts clucking about how one out of six people in the United States is Latino. Twenty-three percent of U.S. children under age 18 are Hispanic.
Given that nearly 6 million Latinos became eligible to vote in the past decade, the Latino voting potential will only increase for the foreseeable future. And party advocates, partisans and members of the political class began a new round of speculation about how the voting will sort out.
The speculation seems to me a little like going to get a custom-tailored suit made but deliberately having the tailor use measurements one wants to have instead of the body shape we actually possess. Like that, the census is a mirror that reflects, but it is not wish fulfillment. It is also a head's up to Republicans about how to shape a mainstream strategy instead of evangelizing to increasing numbers of fringe groups before the GOP mainstream becomes a bevy of marginal beliefs.
The 2010 census tally basically tells us that roughly 10 new congressional districts with Hispanic majorities will be carved out in various growth states. This will cause other states to surrender a like number of congressional seats, with the losing states having less electoral-college influence in 2012.
The jockeying is going to get intense.
For example, President Barack Obama, who won the battleground states of Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida in 2008, is projected by Latino Decisions, a voter-tracking group, to be in jeopardy of receiving 58 fewer electoral votes in 2012 than he did in 2008. The final count will depend on outcomes in such non-Obama strongholds as North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Ohio and the 2nd House district in Nebraska, which are possible Republican pick-ups in 2012.
Nor are the high-growth Obama states of New Mexico and Nevada necessarily safe ground. In 2010, they elected Hispanic Republican governors. And Florida, which Obama carried in 2008, elected a Latino Republican U.S. senator. Depending on which scenario one accepts, the numbers come perilously close to the 270 needed for re-election. That might explain why Obama announced his re-election campaign on April 4, well ahead of any major Republican contender, with a staggering potential of up to $1 billion in campaign spending.
In fact, the Latino vote has become so elemental that analyst Matt Barreto estimates, given a competitive statewide election, Latinos have the capacity to influence electoral outcomes in 24 states.
This is not electoral chump change. One would think that high-stakes politicians and parties would place topmost on their agenda issues that coincide with Hispanic interests such as immigration reform, the education Dream Act, more rigorous professional public-school standards, methods to help everyone with college credits complete their programs and home-finance reform.
Yet, offensive, even criminal, rhetoric goes mostly unrepudiated by national Republican leaders. And far too many Democrats are comfy that the Latino vote has nowhere to go but to them. Double-crossing Democrats and unresponsive Republicans basically want to lay claim to a bloc of votes but not pay rent. We are witnessing squatting as a political strategy and that doesn't make sense.
Consonance, unlike cognitive dissonance, is when a person is consistent in thinking, talking and doing. That's what is lacking -- a coherent link between politics, policy and outcomes -- to justify political support.
Lack of it is called cognitive dissonance.
sockratties posted at 2:14 pm on Wed, Apr 6, 2011.
Jose – I don’t find any real argument with what you said but I think you’re preaching to the choir. Although “interests such as immigration reform, the education Dream Act, more rigorous professional public-school standards, methods to help everyone with college credits complete their programs and home-finance reform” are likely to be issues that get Hispanic voters to the poles, they’re going to actually vote based on the same things as everyone else; jobs, healthcare, education, neighborhood security and availability of services. They’re going to put their immediate well-being at the top of the priority list and let ideals and politics fall where they may. Where the interests you mention are perceived to mesh with their immediate personal needs they will influence the vote.
Unfortunately perception and reality are very different things and we can’t depend on our national media to deliver. Major networks, newsgroups, and magazines are now owned by as few as five conglomerates and the effect is an Orwellian nightmare. The media no longer reports the news, it manages it. The Tea Party is a naïve front for the agenda of the Koch brothers and individuals like Rupert Murdoch, CEO of News Corp., along with Sony, Disney and GE decide what is reported, how it is reported and what is conveniently omitted. Telemundo is part of the NBC/Universal division of Comcast. Univision is owned by a huge NY consortium, TPG Capital and Thomas H. Lee Partners. There is no way even Spanish language media can report unbiased news or present documentaries critical of corporate America or unfavorable to those who wield wealth and power.
It’s the corruption of our politicians, the media and the Fat Cats that control access to, and interpretation of the truth, that are going to shape the outcome of any national election. Sound bite by sound bite the Hispanic voter is going to be lead down the Yellow Brick Road, just like the rest of us.
samkat posted at 2:41 pm on Wed, Apr 6, 2011.
The lack of political will has created this problem. Had effective immigration controls been in place, we would not have had so many illegals giving birth here. Question: How many of the latter day Hispanics really care for the United States or just for what they can gouge out of the social support systems? You only have to look at the public demomstrations with their Mexican flags flying to guess their sense of nationality.
sockratties posted at 3:32 pm on Wed, Apr 6, 2011.
What problem? We’re talking about Americans here. The author is talking about concerns of voters who are going to affect the outcome of elections. If they’re going to be voting, they’re American citizens. Americans voting is not a problem, it’s a right and our citizenship and patriotism should respect that.
k33j88 posted at 7:35 am on Thu, Apr 7, 2011.
Tea party a naive front group? They are made up of ordinary folks wanting limited government, accountibility, constitutional adherance. Immigration reform? That's code talk for amnesty----enforce the laws on the books. Dream Act? So now were supposed to reward the children of parents illegal behavior. Rigorous public school standards? Is that supposed to include the liberal agenda only?
sockratties posted at 1:22 pm on Thu, Apr 7, 2011.
sockratties posted at 1:29 pm on Thu, Apr 7, 2011.
k33j88 – you’re proving what I meant regarding being the recipient of managed news:
Google any combination of the terms “Billionaire Brothers” and “Tea Party” and you can find many sources of information about the relationship between the Tea Party and Koch Brothers. You’re being fed a line, and even defending it. A little research of the well documented information available might open your eyes.
The Koch Bros. are the funding behind “Americans for Prosperity” which is behind the Tea Party. They are also funding much of the movement to curtail union benefits of government workers in Wisconsin. Koch family politics are rooted in McCarthyism and the John Birch Society which is not who I see as “ordinary folks” when their wealth is second to only Bill Gates and Warren Buffet with an annual income in excess of $100B.
chick posted at 12:44 am on Sat, Apr 9, 2011.
So Hispanics march in lockstep? Isn't that racist? Now "Koch family" is the new boogie man?