A lot of people like to make predictions on what is going to happen. Too few of us take responsibility for their successes and, yes, their failures. Here is what I forecast on Dec. 22, 2010:
“I believe that the first two quarters of 2011 will be marked by an uptick in trustee sales as the banks play catch up with those foreclosures that were put on hold by the paperwork scandal. In fact, trustee sales may reach record levels by March. This may be the crescendo of bloodletting as the last of those “red nickels” are sucked out of the real estate market!” My grade: A.
“At the same time people are losing their homes in record numbers, the unemployment rate will have begun to fall marginally primarily due to the recent passage of the tax bill crafted by Obama and the Republicans.” My grade: A.
“By the time school’s out in the late spring, the local real estate market will be ready for a sizable uptick in sales and prices. By the way, people don’t buy homes when prices are going down. The recovery will pick up speed when prices begin to steadily creep back up and buyers begin to panic thinking that they waited to long to make their move.” My grade: A.
“By this time next year, our economy should be modestly improved from what is today. The real estate market should have returned to some degree of predictability. Home prices should be on a continued upward trend ... jobs more plentiful and consumer confidence much stronger.” My grade: A.
“On the downside, I anticipate that interest rates will have returned to pre-recession levels.” My grade: D.
“...the size of our debt will have continued to rise.” My grade: Easy A.
“All of our problems will have not been solved but the carnage of the “Great Recession” will have abated.” My grade: B (Many people are still hurting.)
Based upon my generous self-evaluation, my overall grade for 2011: B+.
Now for my predictions for 2012:
1. The unemployment rate should drop to close to 8 percent by election day, 2012.
2. Sheriff Arpaio will not resign from office. Additional charges will be levied against him by the Department of Justice. He loses in his attempt to win a fifth consecutive term. His “Reign of Terror and Errors” comes to an end.
3. Local real estate prices should increase on average of close to 5 percent during the year. This will be the first real equity growth in nearly five years.
4. Foreclosures will continue to drop as short sales become the new “in thing”.
5. The U.S. Supreme Court will have declared sections of Arizona’s SB 1070 unconstitutional.
6. Governor Brewer will lose her lawsuit against the federal government (again) on medical marijuana. Dispensaries will have open for business.
7. The tea party comes to an abrupt end. Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats regain the U.S. House. The Democrats retain control of the U.S. Senate.
8. President Barack Obama is re-elected for a second term by defeating the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. Obama carries Arizona by a narrow margin turning the State “Purple” versus “Red”.
9. Republican Rep. Jeff Flake becomes the next U.S. Senator from Arizona.
10. The Arizona House of Representatives is taken back by the Democrats albeit by the slimmest of margins. The Senate remains in the hands of the Republicans.
11. The Phoenix Suns fail to make the NBA Playoffs. Steve Nash retires.
12. The Arizona Diamondbacks make it to the National League Championship Series.
13. Quarterback John Skelton leads the Arizona Cardinals into the second round of the NFL Playoffs.
Wow — my crystal ball is brimming over this year! Bet you can’t wait to see my report card this time next year. I’m thinking probably a “B.” A lot depends on you!
Jon Beydler is a 32-year Valley resident and the former mayor of Fountain Hills who now lives in Chandler.
Rich posted at 7:59 pm on Tue, Dec 27, 2011.
Let's play Jon.
It's 12/27/2011. On 12/27/2012, we pick a restaurant and take our wives to dinner, loser pays.
1. The unemployment rate should drop to close to 8 percent by election day, 2012.
I say between 9 and 10 and I hope it isn't worse.
2. Sheriff Arpaio will not resign from office. Additional charges will be levied against him by the Department of Justice. He loses in his attempt to win a fifth consecutive term. His “Reign of Terror and Errors” comes to an end. i say: It's too early to attack, because of the early attack, if he continues to play his game, he wins. An attack like this next June, that's a different story.
3. Local real estate prices should increase on average of close to 5 percent during the year. This will be the first real equity growth in nearly five years. I say that it will drop about 2%. Too much of the demand has been eliminated through credit to meet supply. You can own a million, at today's values, in real estate and ask for 10K and they'll ask for a credit report, when you should be asking for theirs.
4. Foreclosures will continue to drop as short sales become the new “in thing”. I say enough short sales will drop the market.
5. The U.S. Supreme Court will have declared sections of Arizona’s SB 1070 unconstitutional. I say that the state can employ their people to do what they like. The law simply cannot compel the Feds to accept the people Arizona hassles and deport them . If the state really wants to arrest people under federal law, nothing stops them. The Federal government simply isn't obligated to prosecute the people the state arrested. That is the ruling I expect.
6. Governor Brewer will lose her lawsuit against the federal government (again) on medical marijuana. Dispensaries will have open for business. I say without a guarantee of immunity the state can't issue licenses. therefore it is legal to 'grow your own' with a doctors note. Brewer's suit opens personal growing not control, and that is what will happen. Laws, if they are rigidly interpreted are the ultimate chaos.
7. The tea party comes to an abrupt end. Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats regain the U.S. House. The Democrats retain control of the U.S. Senate. I say the GOP will win both. The only other possibility is "independents" becoming an unofficial "third party".
8. President Barack Obama is re-elected for a second term by defeating the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. Obama carries Arizona by a narrow margin turning the State “Purple” versus “Red”. I say that i really doubt Barak will be returned to office. If that happens, Ameicans deserve it. Racists, do not deserve to have control, and the only ability that he has exhibited to be President so far is his skin color.
9. Republican Rep. Jeff Flake becomes the next U.S. Senator from Arizona. OK probably but give me a point if it doesn't happen, because I won't vote that way and I hope not.
10. The Arizona House of Representatives is taken back by the Democrats albeit by the slimmest of margins. The Senate remains in the hands of the Republicans. I say the margin will be slimmer, but the GOP will retain a majority.
11. The Phoenix Suns fail to make the NBA Playoffs. Steve Nash retires. OK probably but give me a point if it doesn't happen. Maybe Steve will decide he can still beat the kiddies.
12. The Arizona Diamondbacks make it to the National League Championship Series. I say that if they do they'll take the WC. So if they don't play for a ticket to the WC or don't make the NCLS, I win.
13. Quarterback John Skelton leads the Arizona Cardinals into the second round of the NFL Playoffs. I say you never played Football, did you Jon? Only if half the San Francisco team is on IR. No, nope, not a prayer.
So we on Jon? I'm sure the EVT will agree to convey my email, and guarantee my anonymity for the story.
Leon Ceniceros posted at 11:13 pm on Tue, Dec 27, 2011.
I hope that ex-Mayor Beydler did not use the same...crystal ball..that he used when he predicted that he would .......NOT BE RECALLED AS MAYOR OF FOUNTAIN HILLS....[wink]
Dale Whiting posted at 11:41 pm on Tue, Dec 27, 2011.
Jon, I wish I could be as optimistic as you! But my money is on Rich's predictions.
mnjcpa posted at 12:22 pm on Wed, Dec 28, 2011.
Beydler predicted the Fall 2010 elections were going to be a Democrat majority & it was a landslide the other way. It is impossible to recover as quickly as he predicts. Understanding basic economics and the monetary system will teach you that.
Making a big deal about a $40 payroll tax refund when we're $15 trillion in debt proves that "kicking the can down the road" is the preferred strategy - particularly at election time.
What I predict is a form of Economic Armageddon Day sometime in late 2012. I'm with Rich. Let's check back & see who's right.