Presidential re-election campaigns are always about the incumbent - serving as a referendum of that president's performance in office and the results of their policies. It's a choice election. It's not about the challenger. What the incumbent tries to do is to make the other "choice" unacceptable, resulting in the incumbent's reelection.
I suspect the 2012 campaign will be waged on only two issues: the economy and a referendum on Obama-care. Consider that, as Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has already predicted, the Supreme Court will likely announce their decision on the constitutionality of Barack Obama's sweeping health care law on the last Monday in June next year. Such a time frame will likely be after the GOP nominee has been chosen but before the national party conventions, during the summer when the presidential general election campaign is not yet being waged ferociously.
No matter what decision is rendered, Obama-care is guaranteed to burn white hot as an issue on the campaign trail in 2012.
Only after the 2012 election, if Obama does win a second term as president, we will we know for sure if he was successful tactically.
However, his ultimate success or failure can be foretold by four discrete statistics - and the first two directly impact the second two.
By Labor Day of 2012, President Obama will have to play the cards he has dealt on the national unemployment rate and on the price of a gallon of gas.
Both subjects present tangible, simple numbers that have a direct impact on Americans personally and psychologically. Labor Day is the time frame when, after summer vacations are over and children return to school, parents (likely voters) begin paying greater attention to the candidates. That's when opinions firm up, information takes hold, and impressions become difficult to change.
If, as is not just possible, but even likely, Obama is dealt a hand that has unemployment over 8 percent and the price of gasoline at $3 a gallon, Americans are likely to view their own economic future pessimistically and give the other candidate, if acceptable to the broad middle, a chance to run the country.
No incumbent president since FDR has won re-election with unemployment over 7.2 percent and today unemployment is 9.2 percent, as today's dismal jobs report indicated. Gas prices were $1.68 when Obama took over, and today the national average is $3.67, more than double.
While some statistics lie, these don't.
Those two statistics will directly impact the so-called "right track, wrong track" number, which indicates what Americans believe about the direction the country is headed. Economic opportunity is political destiny. If unemployment and gas prices are high, the wrong track number will be the majority view, as it is today. A recent poll released by the non-profit Let Freedom Ring, for whom, in full disclosure, I have consulted, pegged the wrong track number at 60 percent in a 1,000 personal national survey in mid-June.
Add up gas prices, national unemployment, and the wrong track number and blend them together - you will get the re-elect number. If an incumbent, whether running for state representative, Congress or president is under 50 percent for re-election, the overwhelming majority of the time they lose.
Incumbents don't win undecided voters at the end because the voters already know them and have made up their mind. A known candidate they don't yet support is less appealing than an unknown candidate they just might like better.
Currently, President Obama is an even shot for re-election. But I suspect we will know by Labor Day 2012 where this is headed. While some politicians might lie, the numbers and history, don't.
• Matt Mackowiak is a Republican consultant and president of Potomac Strategy Group, LLC. He can be reached at matt@potomacstrategygroup.com
AmericanPatriot posted at 10:42 am on Thu, Jul 21, 2011.
Ya I saw that Slab it was very funny. Blacks will view higher unemployment in their ranks as just proof that whites are blocking the Messiah from making the changes Obummer promised them. You know dem rich folks don't want no wealth redistributions.
Slabside posted at 2:31 pm on Wed, Jul 20, 2011.
I remember Howard Stern sent a reporter into Harlem before the 2008 election to get the political perspective of the inhabitants of said New York area.
The reporter fed them all of McCain's platform promises but said they were Obama's. All of the people he interviewed agreed that those campaign promises were the reason they were voting for Obozo.
Black unemployment is at it's lowest right now. I would like to think those voters have had a chance to realize what a failure they helped put into the WH.
I have faith that America has learned fron it's mistake and will set things right next year.
AmericanPatriot posted at 1:07 pm on Wed, Jul 20, 2011.
OBUMMER IS AS AMERICAN AS APPLE PIE AND TACOS? lol haven't heard anything that funny or retarded in a while. You did mean that as a joke right? lol
"With all the lunatics that you represent running against him, I predice a landside victory for your All American President." So this is our president as opposed to your president? I got the same feeling about you from another comment you made that tells me you aren't an American citizen. predice landside? what language is that?
Obummer is not an American anymore than you are Bingo6. He is a socialist, who believes in black liberation theology though. That does make him diametrically opposed to all thinking white people. I wont bore you all by throwing the race card as it's so over used as to be meaningless these days.
Dale, right now the polls show Obummer losing to a generic republican by wide margins. Hispanics are leaving him fast. Whites are waking up to what this guy really is. Only blacks stay with his steadfastly, but no racism there I'm sure lol
Bingo6 posted at 11:05 am on Wed, Jul 20, 2011.
Sorry to burst you bubble Leon, but Barack Hussein Obama is as American and Apple Pie and Tacos.
With all the lunatics that you represent running against him, I predice a landside victory for your All American President.
Sorry, Leo, get over it.
Dale Whiting posted at 10:24 am on Wed, Jul 20, 2011.
There being little prospect that the economy and unenemployment will improve much by Nov 2012, the election is likely to be the Republicans to loose. So the proper question is "Will the Republicans mess it up again?" Currently it would appear that they will.
gc coyote posted at 10:02 am on Wed, Jul 20, 2011.
Leon,
Take the caps off. I know it is hard for you to admit but President Obama is an American as much as you or I. You can disagree with his policies and his vision for the country but to say he is not a real American. It shows you are in the 20% of the " I am nuts" political spectrum. 10% far right-10% far left.
As for the article, it will come down to the independent voters and how they fell Obama is doing.
PollyVote posted at 6:26 am on Wed, Jul 20, 2011.
For daily updated forecasts of the 2012 U.S. election, check out the PollyVote.com, which is based on evidence-based principles derived from research on forecasting.
The Pollyvote is around since 2004 and provided highly accurate forecasts for the past two elections.
http://www.pollyvote.com
Leon Ceniceros posted at 6:06 am on Wed, Jul 20, 2011.
LET'S HOPE THAT RIGHT (THE REPUBLICAN RIGHT) PREVAILS AND A LEGAL, 100%, REAL AMERICAN, ONCE AGAIN SITS BEHIND THE PRESIDENTIAL DESK IN THE OVAL OFFICE OF THE WHITE HOUSE ON 1600 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, WASHINGTON, D.C.
MAYBE THIS IS WHY THE CURRENT OCCUPANT FEELS SO UNCOMFORTABLE SITTING BEHIND THE PRESIDENTIAL DESK AND IS OFF...FLYING ALL OVER THE COUNTRY...DAY IN, DAY OUT...WEEK IN, WEEK OUT, MONTH IN, MONTH OUR, YEAR IN, YEAR OUT....A GUILTY CONSCIENCE.
YES, FOLKS......EVEN MANCHURIAN CANDIDATES CAN HAVE A CONSCIENCE.