Are President Barack Obama and the Democrats political toast?
There are signs that could be the case. Even signs that Democrats could lose the Senate, not win back the House and lose the Oval Office. But ... WAIT!
Welcome to our manic depressant election year where you can choose the poll or argument of your partisan liking and the only certainty will be: Predictions are risky. But there is good data out there.
For instance, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato and his ace “Crystal Ball” political science team do some of the most reliably solid political predictions available. A recent piece by Crystal Ball senior columnist Alan Abramowitz offered grim news for Democrats: Data suggests Republicans are in a good position to keep the House and could at the very least cut into the Democrats’ existing Senate majority — raising the prospect of a GOP Senate takeover.
So the Republicans look like they’re in far better shape than some thought? But ... WAIT!
There’s a wild card on the horizon that could prove a huge blow to the GOP in presidential and Congressional elections: signs the party’s poll rankings with women are seriously tanking. A Gallup/USA Today poll found women fleeing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney for Obama in 12 key swing states. Obama has now opened up a 51 percent to 42 percent general lead there and beats Romney 2 to 1 among women under 50. GOPers: This is your anti-contraception talk and mandatory ultra-sound laws at work.
Romney is more than halfway to the 1,144 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination. But former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum insists he’ll stay in the race, as he attacks Romney for not being a real conservative and stalls the start of the general election campaign. Former Bush advisor Michael Garson notes that to defeat Obama, Romney must politically retool. But Santorum keeps shoving Romney to the right. Romney needs that like Rush Limbaugh needs a banana split.
Romney has become The Blah Candidate. Many leading Republicans endorsing him seem a) stunningly unenthusiastic, or, b) suggest it’s time to endorse him since the primary has gone on too long. Comedian Jon Stewart points out that with this level of enthusiasm “‘I like Ike’ would have been ‘Ike’s Fine,’” and “‘It’s Morning Again in America’ would have been ‘Yeah ... It’s Time to Get Up.’”
Still, perceived boring (Romney) could trump perceived over-his-head (Obama) so don’t count Romney out. Are there limits on how much slow progress Americans will tolerate? Perhaps — because we seem to be entering a new era of visible limits.
For instance, talkers Glenn Beck and Keith Olbermann discovered limits in their dealings with corporations that once employed them. Beck was too Twilight Zone-ish right for Fox News. And the liberal Olbermann reportedly pulled his “I’m a Star” act on Al Gore’s Current TV one time too many (reportedly complaining about the company’s Benny’s Bargain Basement production values, occasionally not showing up for work, and complaining that some drivers from different car services smelled and talked to him). Beck and Olbermann should co-host a new show: “Fired Up and Ready to Go.”
The health care law backlash illustrated the public’s limits on watching blatant, seemingly endless Congressional political deal making. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s crash and burn showed that Republican voters can distinguish between a person with big ideas and one with lousy and batty ones. Santorum’s rapid fall among some voters underscored how some voters refuse to refight 1950s battles (contraception) or 1960s battles (separation of church and state as outlined by JFK).
When it comes to predicting the November vote, all serious political science data and analysis, polls, predictions by smug insider pundits on cable — even columns such as this — can’t obscure the fact that the election will be determined by swing voters, unforeseen events, the economy and the impressions the two presidential candidates make with their big convention speeches and in presidential debates.
And on Election Day the key question for many voters will come down to this: Which presidential candidate crosses the most unacceptable boundary? Obama or Romney?
To the least unacceptable, least odoriferous, lesser of two evils goes the Oval Office spoils.
Joe Gandelman is a veteran journalist who wrote for newspapers overseas and in the United States. He has appeared on cable news show political panels and is Editor-in-Chief of The Moderate Voice, an Internet hub for independents, centrists and moderates. He can be reached at jgandelman@themoderatevoice.com.
Louiejr posted at 11:35 am on Mon, Apr 9, 2012.
I'm going with history . If you believe the " Turmoil over Obamacare " is in the same catagory as " Read my lips ... no new taxes " ( Bush Sr ), 400 US citizens captured by Iran ( Carter ), The pardoning of Nixon ( Ford ) then the current administration will be heading back to Chitown . Otherwise be ready for another 4 years of the " same ol ... same ol ". Just make sure the House & Senate have a GOP majority . That way they can veto every socialist program the administration puts forth.
Even if Sir Romney wins the " Prize " ( 1600 Penn. Ave . ) not much will change because after all he started socialized medicine in Taxachusettes. He will be too busy flying to his 14 homes on our dime and living in the lap of luxury .
mnjcpa posted at 9:56 am on Sat, Apr 7, 2012.
I've had the benefit of knowing CEO's of great, profitable companies with great leadership skills. While their personalities wouldn't warrant a spot on present day "news" (what a joke) shows - they have all the qualities we desperately need today.
We put someone in office that we still don't know anything about - that information has been shielded from the public. Not one of his advisers have private sector experience. So it's no small wonder why our economy is dismal. You've got academics and utopian thinkers applying principles that don't work in reality. Mitt may not be a rock star like Obama, but he darn sure knows how to get us out of this mess. It's just many Americans who retired at 50 and expect the rest of the population to take care of them will have a wake up call if he does what he needs to do. Otherwise it will be done for you - many states will be forced in to Chapter 9 bankruptcy.
Everyone should take a look at the taxes that are coming our way. If the death nail isn't in the American small business casket now - it will be if Obama is reelected.
Accuracy posted at 9:48 am on Sat, Apr 7, 2012.
Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act – better known as ObamaCare:
∙ A health care plan with mandate requirements that all Americans must buy health insurance by 2014 or pay a penalty. Forced to purchase and fined if they don't.
∙ A health care plan with mandate that will require several health insurance plans to pay a monthly fee for abortion coverage, and forces every taxpayer to help pay to end the life of an unborn child.
∙ A health care plan, which purportedly covers at least ten million more people, without adding a single new doctor, but provides for 16,000 new IRS agents.
∙ A health care plan passed by a Congress that didn't read it but exempted themselves from it. A health care plan that forces taxpayers to be taxed for four years before it takes effect.
“Are President Barack Obama and the Democrats political toast?”
Obama’s re-election is doomed, if “ObamaCare” gets ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.
Dale Whiting posted at 3:18 pm on Fri, Apr 6, 2012.
Joe,
At first I wasn't sure where you were going with this piece. But your conclusion made clear what you were after. You said, "To the least unacceptable, least odoriferous, lesser of two evils goes the Oval Office spoils."
I agree fully. And I'd say that the same thing happened in 2008. But few of us will admit it!
Arizona Willie posted at 2:53 pm on Fri, Apr 6, 2012.
Between Republican dominated Legislatures passing laws to allow guns in bars and schools and their WOW ( War On Women ) factor --- I think the Repubs have dug themselves such a hole that they won't see daylight for years.
I wouldn't be surprised to see Democrats take the Arizona Legislature big time == the State Repubs have made complete fools of themselves.
Nationwide I expect the Repubs to suffer HUGE losses.
Which, in some ways will be a shame because the Dems will then adopt the States of Sonora, Chihuahua, and Coahuila as the 51, 52, and 53rd States. [smile]
VofReason posted at 1:06 pm on Fri, Apr 6, 2012.
"To the least unacceptable, least odoriferous, lesser of two evils goes the Oval Office spoils". Does Mitt Romney have a : Van Jones (Communist Cabinet appointee then let go), Rev Wright (America hater pastor), and Bill Ayers (avoute domestic terrorist). Talk about skeletons in the front yard, forget about the closet