The media have reported many stories in the past week that confirm my suspicions, and lead to only one conclusion: There really has been no recession.
In spite of ample supplies of crude oil and reserves, gasoline prices at the pump are climbing to record highs. In spite of record gasoline prices, people buy and drive few hybrids, even fewer CNG vehicles and practically zero electrics. In spite of record gasoline prices, I personally witness what appears to be record numbers of people on all our freeways, driving at what would appear to be record speeds (dying in auto crashes) — in pretty record-sized SUVs and pickups. Of course, Big Oil continues to make billions in profits.
In spite of ridiculously high prices for cigarettes, record numbers of children and young people start and continue smoking. Who in their right mind would pay $7 for a pack of cigarettes? Although lots of adults have quit, LOTS of adults continue to smoke as well.
Restaurants, as well as lots of other small businesses, seem to come and go, but wherever I go, restaurants seem to be busy. And snowbirds seem to be here in full force this winter, spending lots of money.
And now I see on tonight’s Channel 12 news that our illustrious legislators want to take the temporary “emergency” (can you say ‘recession’) 1-cent sales tax increase and make it permanent! Can’t live without it. Because of their failure to govern and tackle the serious issues (overhaul the whole state revenue generating process), their solution is raise taxes.
Recession? Maybe in some sectors, in some areas. I don’t see it. If it was that bad, people would slow down, people would drive less, drive fewer SUVs, buy less gas, behave differently. You certainly wouldn’t see teenagers paying $7 for a pack of cigarettes. I suspect beer sales are pretty normal, too.
This all goes to show that all the anxiety-driven, panic rhetoric put out by the politicians and media had one purpose: to scare citizens and convince us that whatever they propose, and did, was warranted and “just the right thing.” Could the Great Recession have been, continue to be, just an extreme dip, an adjustment, in what is a normal economic “cycle” even here in Arizona? Sometimes it’s too bad that we believe everything we’re told.
John Latson
Mesa
Dale Whiting posted at 10:44 am on Fri, Mar 16, 2012.
John,
Open your eyes my friend. We are consuming less crude oil and we are buying less consumer goods. And we are driving less frequently. We are driving a bit slower, too.
When I drive in the far right hand side of the street in the "old people lane" at say 43 mph, those cars passing me on my left are doing only 49 mph [according to all of those radar speed signs I see] where last year many were doing 53 mph. Things are still looking up, though. Even at 49 mph, they must be in a hurry to beat me to the next red light! I slow down as I approach so as not to loose momentum. I find that saves me even more gasoline. They like jack rabbit starts and stops. It helps them wear out their brake linings!
Accuracy posted at 10:58 am on Fri, Mar 16, 2012.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute has correctly predicted the last three recessions in the U.S.
Weakness in leading economic indicators for the U.S. is spreading widely and the same economic research group says the U.S. is slipping into another recession this year. Which means; the jobless rate will go much higher and the federal budget deficit will soar.
The U.S. economy is showing signs of slow improvement, as stocks have been pushing higher, and economists say it's a direct reflection of American confidence in the economy. But, gas prices will continue to rise, as tensions in the Middle East increase the cost of fuel, and high jet-fuel costs will continue to affect the cost of flying.
Just like Greece is expected to lead the way and suffer another recession this year in Europe this year. Where, the economies of Belgium, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, the Netherlands, and Slovenia are also expected to contract this year.
A recession? You haven't seen anything yet . . . It's going to get a lot worse, as long as President Obama continues in Washington.
truth posted at 3:49 pm on Fri, Mar 16, 2012.
Professor Eugen Weber who taught Western Tradition, Stated the fall of Rome was caused by Rome becoming over extended, non productive, malaria and over 300 years of Christianity.
Cerulean posted at 7:23 pm on Fri, Mar 16, 2012.
John, “Could the Great Recession have been, continue to be, just an extreme dip, an adjustment, in what is a normal economic “cycle” even here in Arizona?”
I guess it depends on which socioeconomic group you look at. Yes, I see pick-up trucks but many are from Minnesota, Iowa or Quebec. ( Not to diminish your point that “Big Oil continues to make billions in profits.”)
Before any more taxes are raised for education, the citizens of Arizona should demand that the Republican legislature restore the money approved in proposition 301 a voter initiative passed in 2000 that provided .06 from every dollar to help education spending keep up with inflation. None of that money has gone to education for two years and schools need it!
http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/azelections/articles/2011/02/10/20110210arizona-school-funding-issue-in-court.html
Dale Whiting posted at 7:25 am on Sat, Mar 17, 2012.
'truth,'
I was told this same thing. The commentaries I read on "Rise and Fall" stated that Toynbee reached this same conclusion. But this week I saw an interesting documentary [I believe it was on the History Chanel H2] that pretty much rejected this notion. It was not over-extension, but turning away from conquest to focus on cultural values. If I recall correctly, it was all Hadrian's fault. Trying to cut back on the cost of conquest, he constructed his wall in England. Thereafter, the professional soldiers whose wealth stemmed from making war, eventually turned on him. I wonder. Was this what Ike really meant when is warned us to "beware of the military-industrial complex?" If so, the sooner we leave Afghanistan behind us and start following Ron Paul, the better.
Cerulean posted at 9:44 am on Sat, Mar 17, 2012.
Dale,
I am wondering what you are referring to when you say “The commentaries I read on "Rise and Fall" stated that Toynbee reached this same conclusion.” I did a search but I am not satisfied that anything fits your comment.
I searched on Weber (thank-you truth), where I found this site: http://history-world.org/videos.html
However, I don’t think there are any comment sections.
VofReason posted at 1:38 pm on Tue, Mar 20, 2012.
Yes, now we have identified it, our society is going down the tubes because (gasp) too much religion. Just like the Romans. To think we all thought it was becuase Hollywood gioing deeper into the sewer, society going deeper into the sewr and more people ok with their hanout wanting someone else to pay for their existance. Oh, and Politicians willing to tell them it wasn't their fualt of how they landed at all- someone elses fault all together. Yup, thank you Truth for clearing that up for us.