The debt ceiling fight currently being waged in Washington will have a major impact on the 2012 elections, because it's presenting a clear contrast between the Republican and Democratic parties - something that rarely happens.
Republicans have skillfully used this moment to push fundamental budget reform uphill. The forces of the status quo, who have gotten fat and happy from federal spending levels of 24 percent of gross domestic product, are violently resisting the overspending straitjacket that the Cut, Cap, Balance plan represents.
It would be very easy for Republicans to wash their hands of a president who is biologically incapable of leading. If a speech or a lecture were necessary, he would be the most qualified person in the world for the task. But alas, what is needed in the White House is a statesman, a negotiator, a legislator. What is needed is trustworthiness and commitment, not hope and change.
But conservatives and the more than 180 groups who make up the Cut, Cap, Balance Coalition (for whom, in full disclosure, I have consulted) have driven this political battle from the very beginning. Now, as it nears some kind of conclusion, it's important to consider the ramifications it will have on policy and politics.
Several courageous leaders in Congress, like Senators Jim DeMint (R-SC), Mike Lee (R-UT) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Congressmen Jim Jordan (R-OH) and Joe Walsh (R-IL), have consistently put the next generation ahead of the next election. Republicans aren't stupid - they know that if they simply increased the debt limit and maybe made Democrats vote against a reasonable plan to cut and restrict spending, it would redound to their political benefit next November. As a result, they'd likely maintain a majority in the House, take back the Senate and perhaps win the White House. But these conservative leaders have said winning an election is not enough. They're worried about the country's future.
The last three elections (2006, 2008 and 2010) were wave elections - which is unusual. Four consecutive wave elections would be even more unusual.
But, it's possible.
In order for Republicans to create the circumstances for a fourth consecutive wave election, they should:
1) Hold firm on Cut, Cap, Balance: On Friday, the Cut, Cap, Balance bill came four votes short in the Senate after easily passing in the House. A CNN poll released last week showed that 66 percent of the American people support it. It is currently the only plan that has passed either house. It could be slightly amended to increase the chances that it could pass in the Senate.
2) Force votes on the balanced-budget amendment (BBA) in both houses before Aug. 2: These votes should occur as late as possible, to encourage maximum public pressure. To become law, the BBA will have to get two-thirds support in both houses of Congress (290 votes in the House, 67 votes in Senate) and get ratified by three-fourths of the states. That's hard but not impossible. In the 1990s, the BBA came just one vote short in the Senate from being sent to the states.
The policy benefits of Cut, Cap, Balance are unmistakable. The Cut, Cap, Balance plan reduces spending in the short term, caps spending in the medium term (over 10 years) and then over the long term requires a balanced budget, to be implemented in about seven years. It is the only plan that will protect America's AAA bond rating and actually solve the problem.
The political benefits of holding firm to Cut, Cap, Balance and forcing votes on a BBA will be significant. More than 70 percent of Americans want a BBA and 49 states have one type of balanced-budget requirement or another. Have you heard a Democrat explain why he or she opposes the BBA? Their explanation is unintelligible gibberish. They mumble something about how it is the responsibility of Congress to do it. That's the problem. Congress has been irresponsible for the last 12 years. Irresponsible people do not choose to be responsible - you must give them no choice.
Imagine the power of the debate on a balanced budget playing out in all 50 states, with many states voting in November 2012. Would statewide and local Democratic candidates oppose a 70 percent issue? They would at their peril.
President Obama and congressional Democrats are scared to death of having their spending power checked. They don't trust the voters to decide.
One way or another - either through a BBA or in the likely wave election of 2012 - the voters will decide.
Matt Mackowiak is a Republican consultant and president of Potomac Strategy Group, LLC. He can be reached at matt@potomacstrategygroup.com.
Accuracy posted at 4:44 pm on Mon, Jul 25, 2011.
Matt Mackowiak wrote: “President Obama and congressional Democrats are scared to death of having their spending power checked. They don't trust the voters to decide.”
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Precisely why – President Obama will deliver a statement to the nation today, Monday, to discuss raising the debt ceiling limit above $14.3 trillion by Aug. 2.
American citizens know the “what;” That out-of-control spending, mismanagement of the people’s money and impertinent regulation must be brought under control now. Even though Obama has threatened to withhold Social Security payments and veterans' checks, among other payments, if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling limit, and increase taxes.
Rich posted at 6:17 pm on Mon, Jul 25, 2011.
"It would be very easy for Republicans to wash their hands of a president who is biologically incapable of leading. "
Whoa, 'biologically incapable' ???? Did you really write that? He's the worst incompetent I've ever seen in the White House, this year he flew past Bush II, AND Jimmy Carter, which I would have sworn was near impossible. He's a product of affirmative action, and miles out of his depth, he was given free passes instead of a solid education. But what does that have to do with biology? I don't find him stupid, just ignorant and used to everyone patting him on the head and telling him he's brilliant. He could have been more than capable, he just never had to be before.
Rodini posted at 7:59 pm on Mon, Jul 25, 2011.
If the above article wasn't so pathetic, I'd have to laugh. Don't you guys ever get tired of repeating the same old lies over and over and over again??
Really now, we both know it's been the Republicans who are the BIG SPENDERS compared to the Democrats over the past 30+ years. From Reagan to G.W. Bush, they have added trillions of dollars to the federal deficit because of Two Wars, bloated military budgets, the unfunded Medicare Part D program that pays full price for drugs to pharmaceutical companies and their constant need to cut taxes, and finally the Bush recession and Tarp bailout of banks and Wall Street due to deregulation of the industry, that is killing jobs and created the disaster we have today!
Under Clinton we watched taxes go back up to 39.6% for the wealthy, 22 million new jobs created and the budget was balanced with a surplus that would have wiped out the deficit in 12 years.
Under Bush , taxes were cut back to 35% and we watched 50,000 factories close and millions of American jobs shipped overseas. We watched ZERO net growth in private sector jobs and only a net of 1 million new government jobs added to the federal payroll, mostly meeting the needs of troops involved in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
AND... we watched the Congress approve over 20 increases in the debt limit during the Reagan and George Bush presidencies.
Not until we got a Black Democrat in the WHITE HOUSE did raising the debt limit even become an issue and despite all the evidence above that trickle down, don't tax the "job creators" conservative ideology is as bogus as bogus can possibly be, you guys just can't stop trying to sell your bag of baloney again and again!
You guys are not Patriots, but your Republican Congressmen are guilty of failing to adhere to the oath of office they took to support and defend the Constitution, especially when they allow a pathetic, little No Tax Pledge from Grover Nordquist take precedence over their duty to those who elected them by making sure our nation doesn't default on it's obligations and send the world economy into a tailspin all to protect the wealthiest Americans and biggest Corporations who have failed miserably at creating new jobs whenever taxes have been cut in the past.
And how do you explain away the evidence of the 22 million private sector jobs created under Clinton after taxes were raised ? You can't can you? Just as you can't explain why you keep trying to sell the same old lies over and over again either.
My guess is that makes you UN-American and probably guilty of Treason when you are willing to sacrifice common sense based on the economic facts and risk the livelihoods and happiness of hundreds of millions of common working folk all across the globe just to protect the very few at the top of the ladder, with no regard to the pain caused to the vast majority of our world citizens.
SHAME ON YOU!!
Regards,
Rod Livdahl
Mesa, AZ
Slabside posted at 9:04 pm on Mon, Jul 25, 2011.
"Not until we got a Black Democrat in the WHITE HOUSE did raising the debt limit even become an issue"
Rod Livdahl, your posts have got to be the most RACIST trash I have ever read.
One Hour Martinizing Cleaners called... your sheets and white hood are ready for pick up.
CSalafia posted at 3:09 pm on Tue, Jul 26, 2011.
Cut, Cap and Balance is an economic disaster waiting to happen. It will require, conservatively, spending cuts of 40-50% to meet the 18% of previous year's GDP spending caps (per the Balanced Budget Amendment).
Just today, the CBO scored Boehner's plan, i.e. CCB, and reported that it would only save $1.1T over the next 10 years AND will still cause a credit downgrade.
What's needed is a balanced plan. Spending cuts, raise the top bracket 1%, raise the FICA ceiling, raise the retirement age, roll back corporate welfare, kill tax breaks for companies that incorporate overseas to avoid paying taxes, etc.
Dale Whiting posted at 3:19 pm on Tue, Jul 26, 2011.
BBA? Dream on!
Our goose is already cooked. The only solution if for universal sacrifice. Each segement of the society taking a hit on its prosperity in order to create a future for us all. WW2 caused the US to build infractructure. While the WPA and CCC helped keep people working and moderately productive, it was good ol' government deficient spending, war bonds purchased at sacrifice and a united front which gave us the economic recovery envied round the world.
Arizona Willie posted at 7:43 am on Wed, Jul 27, 2011.
The Republicans under Bush started two wars with no way to pay for them and passed a Medicare Prescription Benefit ( for their political benefit ) with no way to pay for it -- AND MADE THEM OFF THE BUDGET ITEMS!!!!!!!
If they had been on budget the Bush administration would take the blame for the huge increase in the deficit due to his wars and prescription plan which he signed off on.
Obama put the bill for the two wars and the prescription plan BACK ON BUDGET and that is what hugely increased the deficit - far more than the stimulus.
Now the Republicans blame HIM for the increase in the deficit which is something THEY created and HID by making the wars and prescription plan off budget items.
Friends don't let friends vote Republican ... unless your friends are multi-millionaires.
Wannabees don't count :)
Slabside posted at 11:43 am on Wed, Jul 27, 2011.
Here we go again Arizona Willie... IT'S ALL BUSH'S FAULT!!!!!