Economists: Arizona on the brink of bouncing back
Lee McPheters
Lee McPheters, an economics professor at Arizona State University, said Wednesday he expects the state to add 50,000 jobs in 2011. But McPheters noted that still will leave Arizona with more than 250,000 fewer jobs than at the peak in December 2007.
Elliott Pollack
Economist Elliott Pollack said Wednesday that home prices should increase by 2014 by up to 60 percent from where they are today. But he said that is still 30 percent below where they were at the peak, meaning people who bought their homes in 2005 and 2006 may still be ``under water,'' owing more on their houses than they are worth.
Joel Naroff
Economist Joel Naroff said Wednesday the key to economic recovery will be for consumers to start spending more. But Naroff said that's not likely to happen until people believe there are jobs available.
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MyAIC posted at 5:19 pm on Fri, Dec 3, 2010.
On Wednesday I attended the 47th Annual Economic Forecast Luncheon presented by the Department of Economics at Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business and JPMorgan Chase. Overall, I came away optimistic about next year. Not giddy, but optimistic.
Both economists who gave the national forecast were optimistic about growth next year (in the second half, at least): relatively slow 2-2.5 percent GDP growth through mid-2011then 3.5-5 percent GDP growth in the second half of 2011.
Professor Lee McPheters, who presented the forecast for the state economy, characterized his outlook as “slow growth ahead, but no double-dip recession.” Arizona is at the tail end of a long bottoming out, just set to embark on a recovery. Forecast is for the economy to add 47,800 new jobs next year and be back to pre-recession levels of employment by June 2013.
Local economist Elliott Pollack, ever the optimist (not really) characterized Arizona’s real estate outlook : “So many homes, so few new people…” He said, “We could face several more years of stress and there is no quick way out.” He predicts that the residential housing market will be back on solid footing (with supply equal to demand) in 2014. His forecast for commercial markets is similar: back to normal vacancy levels in 2014 or 2015 (perhaps a bit earlier for industrial buildings).
http://www.arizonaic.org/blog/315-arizona-economic-forecast-2011
Rich posted at 10:49 pm on Wed, Dec 1, 2010.
Arizona has been on the brink of recovery every few weeks for about five years now. The real estate market has been 'bottomed out' for at least that long. At this point the 'news' that we are, once again, poised on the threshold of recovery is sort of like saying the sun came up this morning. Wait until it happens then report it. , eventually, we assume it will. Until it does, put "Arizona poised on the brink of recovery" as the last line in your website and on your front page, it'll sort be a man bites dog story when it happens that way.