As observers evaluate the impact of SB 1070 in the year since it was signed by Gov. Jan Brewer, there is one arena in which little analysis is needed: It was a blockbuster bill that benefited the immediate political fortunes of the Republican Party.
But will illegal immigration continue to be a winning political issue for the GOP, or is the party headed for the kind of long-term backlash experienced by California Republicans who sought to deny social services to illegal immigrants with Proposition 187 in 1994 — especially with the Latino population in Arizona and the U.S. growing even faster than was believed?
“The issue kind of exploded on the scene last year,” said Jim Haynes, president of Phoenix-based Behavior Research Center, a marketing and public-opinion research firm. “My guess is that the impact has probably reached a high point and will stay there. The public memory can be short, and typically by the next election, the public has moved on to the next issue.”
Republicans perhaps won’t not mind if the level of illegal immigration fervor stays put. Less than six months after Brewer signed the immigration law, a state that some analysts suggested was turning purple returned to solid red.
On election day 2010, Republicans swept all six statewide offices for the first time in 16 years and tightened their grip on the state Legislature. A 5-3 Congressional delegation in favor of Democrats flipped to 5-3 for the GOP. “When it came down to state politics, the bill had a big impact on getting out the vote,” said Tom Morrissey, Arizona Republican Party chairman. “It is such a passionate issue and a very big dynamic in our turnout.”
The GOP mileage may vary in future elections, given a Latino population that is starting to throw weight around at the polls. That demographic preferred Democrats over Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin in 2010 and played decisive roles in Senate races in California, Nevada, Colorado and Washington, likely costing the GOP control of the chamber.
According to 2010 Census figures, there are about 50.5 million Latinos in the U.S. — 16.3 percent of the population, and a growth of 43 percent during the last decade. The demographic accounted for about half of the population growth in Arizona, helping the state earn a ninth U.S. House seat.
Last year’s election results are a “false sense of security” for the Arizona GOP, said DeeDee Blase, founder of Somos Republicans, a Scottsdale-based advocacy group.
“Democrats are in a good position to work on 400,000 eligible, unregistered Latino voters in this state,” Blase said. “I believe we will turn back purple, and hopefully, we can stop it at that. I hope it doesn’t go completely blue.”
Rodolfo Espino, assistant professor of political science at Arizona State University, said that while Latinos — a demographic that is typically entrepreneurial, faith-based and socially conservative — have been hostile to the GOP, they have not embraced the Democrats.
He cited May 2010 polling in which a plurality — 44.2 percent — of Arizona Hispanic voters indicated that they would vote against President Barack Obama and the Democrats in 2012 if immigration reform and the DREAM Act, a bill that provides certain alien students a path to citizenship, did not pass by then.
“The support for Democrats is not overwhelming in its strength,” Espino said. “There’s an opportunity for both parties, but they have to tap it. Republicans can peel back the losses (among Latinos) that they suffered in 2010, but given the candidates that they have in a lot of places, I don’t see that happening.”
A big part of the Democrats’ future success among Latino voters in Arizona depends on outreach. And while labor and progressive organizations have been vital to such efforts in California, Nevada and Colorado, no such infrastructure exists in Arizona.
“Right now, the party is in a rebuilding stage, coming off November,” said Jennifer Johnson, spokeswoman for the Arizona Democratic Party. “So we are in a period of ramping up, where we have to do a lot of fundraising and putting the word out, to build a foundation of building turnout, both among Hispanic voters and all voters, for 2012.”
• Contact writer: (480) 898-6301 or dzeiger@evtrib.com
k33j88 posted at 5:28 am on Wed, Apr 20, 2011.
Immigration reform??? How about enforcing the laws on the books? Why doesn't the good old USA just give the Southwest back to mexico----they're taking it back without firing a shot anyways. Can iI fly a US flag in mexico and demand rights as an illegal???
VivaSB1070 posted at 6:33 am on Wed, Apr 20, 2011.
California Prop 187 was passed by the MAJORITY OF CALIFORNIA VOTERS, then was struck down by the court. So the original premise of this article, that the California Republican party suffered backlash because of Prop 187, is FALSE.
More and more states are passing and will pass 1070 like bills as more and more people of ALL parties are fed up with the invasion of resource sucking third world criminals. Time for every state to pass these kind of laws - It will certainly look ridiculous when Obama & Holder are suing dozens and dozens of states thereby refusing to listen to the will of the people, refusing to use existing federal laws.
Dale Whiting posted at 7:17 am on Wed, Apr 20, 2011.
Judging by her current performance on other Hot Button legislation, Jan Brewer may be wishing she hadn't jumped on the band wagon by signing SB1070. To date all it has accomplished was defeating Buz Mills, sending him running tail between his legs. Being a businessman, Buz knew when to stop wasting his own money trying to please Arizona Neo-conservatives. Maybe now Jan recognizes that SB1070 can become a weight hanging round her neck. But in vetoing several other Neo-conservative inspired currently pending legislation, who does she think she is, Governor? And what does she think she has over our legislature, Intelligence?
Leon Ceniceros posted at 7:51 am on Wed, Apr 20, 2011.
NOTICE THE DIFFERENCE IN THE COMMENTS = REPUBLICANS VOICE "AMERICAN" VALUES.......WHILE..............DEMOCRATS VOICE = GLOBAL OR VILLAGE VALUES (I GUESS THAT'S OK IF YOU WERE BORN IN........KENYA.....BUT.....MOST AMERICANS WERE BORN IN THE GOOD OLE US OF A....THAT IS THE ONE'S WHO ARE NOT ASHAMED OF SHOWING THEIR BIRTH CERTIFICATES).
LIBERALS/PROGRESSIVES/NEW LEFT/OLD LEFT/SOCIALIST OR FLAT OUT COMMUNISTS..........DON'T WANT A STRONG AMERICA..........THEY WANT AN ....."WEAK"...AMERICA.
THEY WANT AN AMERICA THAT... "DOES NOT"... HAVE THE PATRIOTISM AND LOVE OF OUR COUNTRY THAT OUR FOUNDING FATHERS IN 1776 WROTE ABOUT IN THE CONSTITUTION.
THEY ARE NOT ....PRO-LIFE....THEY WANT ....ABORTION ON DEMAND
THEY ARE NOT ....PRO-CITIZENSHIP.....THEY WANT ............AMNESTY FOR EVERY SINGLE ....ILLEGAL ALIEN FROM MEXICO, IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, EGYPT, SOMALIA, NIGERIA, LIBERIA, GUATAMALA, VENENZUELA, CUBA, LIBYA.........EVERY COUNTRY THAT WANTS TO EITHER.........KILL AMERICANS....OR STEAL THEIR CARS, THEIR PROPERTY..........OR....THEIR IDENTITIES.
IF YOU LIKE ANY OF THE ABOVE = VOTE....DEMOCRAT OR LIBERAL OR PROGRESSIVE ! ! ! !
AmericanPatriot posted at 9:22 am on Wed, Apr 20, 2011.
lol Dale never misses an opportunity to bash Brewer. He's so much smarter than Brewer I wonder why he doesn't run for public office. Oh ya, I forgot, you're are lame open border, amnesty, progressive who couldn't win an election for dog catcher so you spend your days bashing your betters.
Brewer and the entire republican party are pleased as punch over what sb1070 has done so far for our state. They have no regrets. It has been as good for our state as it has been bad, but for the nation as a whole it has been great. It will continue to be an inspiration for states to follow in the future. When the supreme court finally overturns Bolton, illegals will move out of Arizona entirely.
California Proposition 187 (1994) was a ballot initiative designed to create a state-run citizenship screening system in order to prohibit illegal immigrants from using health care, public education, and other social services in the U.S. State of California, and was voted for by a majority of the voters in California. Had nothing to do with republicans winning or losing.
30% of Arizona Latinos vote republican, and understand the illegal immigration problem, so why should the republican party worry about them? It's the independents they need to be concerned with.
Brittanicus posted at 1:36 pm on Wed, Apr 20, 2011.
WHERE ARE THEY GOING?
Seems a revelation has been born in the Great Canyon State of Arizona, as the Leftist Czars and open border zealots were completely wrong about their economy diving? The Obama administration immediately ran to the federal courts, and Judge Bolton issued an injunction, halting any hope of the SB 1070 policing law going into effect immediately, while the law was litigated and then jumping to the infamous 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. The screaming banshees from the Liberal indoctrinated cause, advocacy groups whose agenda is a commitment to no borders at all, swore blind that Arizona would suffer economic devastation? These included massive real estate foreclosures, home buyers would give the state a wide berth, with boycotts that would hurt the State and with a main objective that illegal alien families would flee the state, leaving economic uncertainty?
So the Liberal progressive couldn't have been more wrong as Arizona is prospering. The 2010 Census has proved beyond any shadow of doubt, that unlike the illegal alien Sanctuary State of California, and equally opened to occupation Nevada, that Arizona is bristling with new arrivals. It seems that Canadian citizens frustrated with the inclement weather up North are pouring in to take advantage of the low priced homes and the depressed US dollar. Outside of Nevada, the newest illegal immigrant refuge State, Arizona is a rapidly growing in population. Lee McPheters, director of the J.P. Morgan Chase Economic Outlook Center has predicted that the State of Arizona’s population will increase by close to two percent this year.
What actually happened to retort the silly boycotts and other negative activity, thousands of patriotic citizens and permanent residence throughout the nation, disgusted with the Liberal agenda, decided to deliberately reserve Arizona as their vacation spot. The largest haven for illegal alien households, Los Angeles County issued a resolution against the financially hurting State of Arizona, which got in the craw of millions of Americans. Antonio Villaraigosa, a pro-illegal alien Mayor committed himself, to the boycott and then in retaliation Corporation Commissioner Gary Pierce sent a letter stating to the city managers, saying that he would “be happy to encourage Arizona utilities to renegotiate your power agreements so Los Angeles no longer receives any power from Arizona-based generation.” Los Angeles County gets 25 percent of its electricity from Arizona power plants.
On June 29, last year Governor Jan Brewer condemned the federal government for what she calls its "continued failure to secure our international border," and announced the unveiling of a new web site for donating money to the cause. She pointed out at this time that signs have been posted on federal property in Southern Arizona to warn people about the dangerous border. Within weeks close to $4 million in donations was received from over 43,000 Americans countrywide, with more than enough to cover the $1.5 million in costs for attorneys and fees. Currently, in the Frontier State the economy has shown little difference in service industries where illegal immigrants work, such as landscaping, fast food, roofing, building, car washes, factories and the hotel industry. Although illegal immigrants are disappearing from the state, prices have barely increased; BUT WHERE ARE THEY GOING?
California would be my first guess? Nevada is for sure and also Utah? Colorado? These States are exhibiting naked ignorance of the war going on in America. While Arizona begins to thrive, California has to expect more crowded classrooms full of children of illegal immigrants and of course the health care emergency rooms being further clogged to its limits. If you live in these States or any State that is pandering to foreigners, they will not only see Democrat politicians scrambling to enact laws for higher taxes, but your State deficits will rise accordingly as these people look for another haven.
Reports that SB 1070 is hurting the State economically has not taken into account the near deep recession. Since Arizona has been one of the highest growing in the Southwest, it now has one of the highest rates of home foreclosures. It has been hit harder by the recession than most of the rest of the country, except for Nevada. Arizona lost twice as many jobs as the average state during the economic decline of the past few years. Earlier last year the State of Arizona ranked 12th for job creation of the 50 states surveyed. My first wife who lives right now in Ohio, has decided to buy a home in Arizona. Not as a investor, but to live there. I have already waned her to stay well away from the border, but a gated community.
If you want an upper hand to stop these innocuous “Political Correctness” of our immigration laws, forced on us by the Lib-Democrats and their (seeking more votes) or Elite Republicans (cheap labor) our only real alternative is the TEA PARTY. Its overall platform is less government interference, fair taxes, and national security. Their leader’s will halt the unresponsiveness of both parties to our 14 Trillion deficits and not allow the credit ceiling to rise without assurances that government expenditure will be cut, including fraud and waste in entitlements. That a double layer fence will separate America from drug cartels and the far reaching economic immigrants pouring into America. There will be no Immigration reforms, which include amnesties of any kind; currently that means the Dream Act, Sanctuary States, chain migration, that are stealth amnesties. We need to look after our own people, living in poverty, not the rest of the world. Speak-up, join the TEA PARTY and make this a central issue in coming elections. Attn: Unknown numbers of illegal aliens have been caught in different malleable States voting in our elections.
quietgardens posted at 6:43 am on Sun, Apr 24, 2011.
People that put money into the pot (all taxes and other fees legal Amercians pay everyday, all year) should be the ones that can take out (welfare, unemployment and other services).
If you want to be an American citizen, then go through the process to be one. I worked with someone that came here through the legal channels with a work visa, and after learning the language, taking classes and everything else expected of her, applied for citizenship. Within 6 months of applying, she was legal and now moving on with her life and all the opportunities we have here. That is how it is done. Not sneaking over here, hiding, and demanding their fair share of everyone (elses) contributions.
AmericanPatriot posted at 6:59 pm on Mon, Apr 25, 2011.
quietgardens, the method you suggest in legally becoming an American wont work for the millions of illiterate, unskilled foreigners who are often times criminals in their own countries. This bottom of the barrel is what we get with illegal immigration gone wild. It's why more than half the illegals are collecting some sort of government assistance that is straining our state budgets. California, which is a sanctuary state, is so far under water it will take a very large federal bailout to get it under control. Of course the drain will still be there until they are forced to take action and deport their very large population of illegal aliens. I don't see that happening until a non marxist federal government takes over and forces them to.
samkat posted at 7:30 pm on Fri, Jul 8, 2011.
Dale: What do you call the radical liberals who keep trying to turn this country into a cess pool? Are they American heros or Pancho Villa ideologues? I will tell you straight out that they are not American heros. I have supported the democratic party of over 50 years but no idiot who supports illegal immigration gets my vote.