A new statewide poll shows that Arizona’s economic recovery could be built on the back of broken washing machines and worn-out transmissions.
The Behavior Research Center found that three fourths of Arizonans say they have cut back a lot on their purchases since the recession began. And most of those describe their spending reductions as “a lot.’’
But pollster Earl de Berge said it also appears that, recession or not, there comes a point where people have no choice but to buy something.
Fully a third of those questioned told researchers they had reached a point where some major purchases just could not be put off any longer. And de Berge found that most of these people were not the ones at the top of the income scale who could most afford it.
“Clearly, the spending that we’re seeing is driven by the need to replace something that’s worn out,’’ said Marshall Vest, an economist at the Eller College of Management at the University of Arizona.
Dennis Hoffman, economist at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University, said he has seen a similar pattern.
“Stuff is wearing out,’’ he said. “And when things wear out, it’s time to buy the new car, it’s time to buy the new appliance.’’
Making some of those purchases may require borrowing. But Hoffman said those who can qualify for financing would be advised to take advantage of that.
“You can strike smoking deals right now,’’ he said, with great bargains to be had not only on cars but also on appliances and furniture.
Vest said, though, that more is at play in the uptick in spending than just the fact that things break.
“Even though consumer confidence is low and has fallen, consumers continue to spend,’’ he said. Vest suggested there is some psychology involved.
“After a while, you just get tired of pinching the penny and decide you need to have an emotional release and go buy something,’’ Vest said. And that, he explained, is one reason that prior recessions do not last forever.
“This recovery has been so slow and people have been worried for so long that perhaps they’re reaching their limit,’’ he said.
Hoffman said part of what happened is that even those who have been employed all through the recession froze their buying.
“I think that some of them are thawing out a little bit,’’ he said, even if they remain worried about the economy.
“It’s wise people making prudent, careful, long-run spending decisions that can lead to long-run fundamental growth,’’ Hoffman said. And Hoffman said the evidence is that they are being smarter about their spending and not using the equity on their home as a credit line to make purchases.
The Behavior Research Center report is based on a telephone survey of 700 adult heads of households conducted earlier this month. It has a margin of error of 3.8 percent.
TruthSeeker posted at 6:35 pm on Thu, Oct 27, 2011.
BTW, I don't live with my parents. I own my house outright.
TruthSeeker posted at 6:34 pm on Thu, Oct 27, 2011.
I'm living on a lot less than $25,000 as I am on Social Security. My dryer recently broke, and my washing machine is on its last legs. I don't have the money to replace them right now so, guess what? I am going to the local laundramat until I can afford to make the major purchase. Before I buy a washer/dryer though, I need tires on my 17 year old car (like new with only 62,000 miles on it) and also need to fix the A/C on it. I went without A/C in my car all last summer. Not fun, but doable. I can't justify buying a new car as I don't drive enough to warrant the purchase. I set my priorities, made some sacrifices, and somehow scrape by. I am still looking for work. I am trying not to go into debt over major purchases.
Leon Ceniceros posted at 3:22 pm on Thu, Oct 27, 2011.
Folks, does this poll make sense to you. If you are making under $25,000.00 ...how in the heck can you afford to make a "major purchase"..unless you are living with your parents ???
The only "major purchase" that I can think would be logical is if the Refridgerator, stove or the washing machine was on the fritz. Your "major purchase" would at the most be $800.00. As for trying to purchase a new car...."forget it"...you would have to have Billionaire Warren Buffet's credit score to get an 80%, 5year car loan ..and that's at 5%.
I just came back from Sprouts...what a difference a month makes. Last month, you could bowl down the aisles because there were "zero" customers. Now some of the "snowbirds" are flocking in and you even see people buying "organic" fruits, veggies and dairy stuff. Last month it was all "generic" and "what's on sale is what's for dinner".
I was getting worried that our Supermarket chains and even Wal-Mart were going to go belly-up because there were so few customers up to last month. The customers who were shopping the past months were buying the weekly sale items only and Milk....lots and lots of cheap Milk. Campbell's soups and Hormel chili beand and Ball Park hot dogs were in everybody's carts. You can tell when things are bad when the parking lot at the 99Cents store has more cars that the chain Supermarket across the street.
Wall Street, the Obama Administration, our Local City Halls and Chamber of Commerces are all out there touting that the "Recession" is over.
Well, Folks, just look around you the next time you go to the Mall or the Supermarket...look in the carts if you don't believe me. The "local" Mesa customers aren't buying ....."squat".